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Caterpillar Inc. CAT | NYSE

$815.78 -$10.86 | -1.31%

SIGNAL:

|2026-07-16 |F&G 44 |RSI 53.9

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $375.01B

Trailing PE: 35.1x

FWD PE *: 28.4x

Payout Ratio (TTM): 31.9%

52-Week Range: $470.24 - $1,073.46

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year CAT Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 1,033% (27.47% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 869% (25.49% CAGR)

Share Price: 819% (24.83% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): 9.05%

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $113,270

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $103,270

Dividend Increase: 96.1% (7.15% CAGR)

Dividend Yield (FWD): 0.80% ($6.52)

CAT 10-yr Total Return ($10K invested)

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

CAT Share Price

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

CAT Price CAGR:1Y: 70.97%2Y: 44.42%5Y: 33.56%10Y: 24.83%

CAT Dividend Charts

CAT - Dividends

CAT Dividend CAGR:1Y: 7.95%2Y: 7.52%5Y: 7.99%10Y: 7.79%

CAT - Dividend Payout Ratio

CAT Dividend Payout Ratio CAGR:1Y: 22.39%2Y: 25.30%5Y: -1.41%10Y: -7.58%

CAT - Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio

CAT Dividend to FCF Ratio CAGR:1Y: 39.01%2Y: 24.08%5Y: 2.76%10Y: 3.16%

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CAT Fundamentals: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

CAT - Revenue

CAT Revenue CAGR:1Y: 23.98%2Y: 10.95%5Y: 9.77%10Y: 7.10%

CAT - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

CAT EPS CAGR:1Y: 68.18%2Y: 19.07%5Y: 24.86%10Y: 23.65%

CAT - Net Income

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CAT Net Income CAGR:1Y: 64.89%2Y: 15.77%5Y: 20.52%10Y: 20.65%

CAT - EBITDA

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CAT EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 52.60%2Y: 7.55%5Y: 15.55%10Y: 12.58%

CAT - Free Cash Flow

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CAT Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 45.18%2Y: 16.90%5Y: 15.63%10Y: 8.08%

CAT - Free Cash Flow / Share

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CAT Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 48.11%2Y: 20.26%5Y: 19.69%10Y: 10.69%

CAT - Operating Income

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CAT Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 47.14%2Y: 7.16%5Y: 19.14%10Y: 18.52%

CAT - Gross Profit

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CAT Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 42.14%2Y: 11.58%5Y: 14.80%10Y: 10.83%

CAT - Shares Outstanding

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CAT Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: -1.91%2Y: -2.80%5Y: -3.33%10Y: -2.38%

CAT - Share Buybacks

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CAT Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 445.32%2Y: 57.03%5Y: 78.02%10Y: 116.32%

CAT - Stock-Based Comp

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CAT Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 8.24%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

CAT - Expenses

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CAT Expenses CAGR:1Y: 32.46%2Y: 32.64%5Y: 16.24%10Y: 3.87%

CAT - Revenue vs Net Income

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CAT - EPS vs FCF / Share

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CAT - EPS vs PE Ratio

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CAT - FCF vs FCF / Share

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CAT - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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CAT - Cash & Debt

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CAT - Revenue by Segment

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CAT Revenue CAGR:1Y: 23.98%2Y: 10.95%5Y: 9.77%10Y: 7.10%

CAT - Revenue by Region

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CAT Revenue CAGR:1Y: 23.98%2Y: 10.95%5Y: 9.77%10Y: 7.10%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

CAT - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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CAT Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 23.98%2Y: 10.95%5Y: 9.77%10Y: 7.10%

CAT - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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CAT Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 68.18%2Y: 19.07%5Y: 24.86%10Y: 23.65%

CAT - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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CAT Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 64.89%2Y: 15.77%5Y: 20.52%10Y: 20.65%

CAT - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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CAT Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 52.60%2Y: 7.55%5Y: 15.55%10Y: 12.58%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

CAT - Net Profit Margin

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CAT Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 33.00%2Y: 4.36%5Y: 9.80%10Y: 12.64%

CAT - Gross Profit Margin

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CAT Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 14.62%2Y: 0.56%5Y: 4.58%10Y: 3.48%

CAT - Price to Earnings

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CAT Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: 63.18%2Y: 51.10%5Y: 10.13%10Y: 5.42%

CAT - Price To Sales Ratio

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CAT Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: 116.86%2Y: 57.62%5Y: 20.90%10Y: 18.75%

CAT - Return on Capital Employed

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CAT Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: 29.74%2Y: -4.61%5Y: 15.67%10Y: 16.11%

CAT - Return on Invested Capital

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CAT Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: 35.05%2Y: -0.46%5Y: 12.62%10Y: 15.01%

CAT Dividends Info:

Annual Dividend: $6.52

Forward Yield: 0.8%

Ex-Dividend Date: 2026-07-20

Lifetime Dividends / Share: $74.48

CAT Dividend History: Dates, Payments & Yield list

Below is a schedule of all CAT dividend payments, ex-dates, share price on the day of the payment as well as the annualized yield & forward yield

Ex-Date	Payment Date	Amount	Yield	Forward Yield	Price on Ex-Date
07/20/2026	08/19/2026	$1.630	0.75%	0.8%	$816.15
04/20/2026	05/19/2026	$1.510	0.76%	0.7%	$860.15
01/20/2026	02/19/2026	$1.510	0.96%	0.79%	$760.53
10/20/2025	11/20/2025	$1.510	1.14%	1.11%	$546.13
07/21/2025	08/20/2025	$1.510	1.47%	1.44%	$420.59
04/21/2025	05/20/2025	$1.410	1.98%	1.61%	$349.49
01/21/2025	02/20/2025	$1.410	1.42%	1.62%	$349.15
10/21/2024	11/20/2024	$1.410	1.44%	1.48%	$381.50
07/22/2024	08/20/2024	$1.410	1.62%	1.64%	$343.30
04/19/2024	05/20/2024	$1.300	1.47%	1.43%	$362.75
01/19/2024	02/20/2024	$1.300	1.82%	1.66%	$313.74
10/20/2023	11/20/2023	$1.300	2.09%	2.08%	$250.45
07/19/2023	08/18/2023	$1.300	1.98%	1.9%	$273.80
04/21/2023	05/19/2023	$1.200	2.18%	2.23%	$214.78
01/19/2023	02/17/2023	$1.200	1.95%	1.94%	$247.79
10/21/2022	11/18/2022	$1.200	2.52%	2.07%	$231.43
07/19/2022	08/19/2022	$1.200	2.67%	2.45%	$195.60
04/22/2022	05/20/2022	$1.110	2.05%	2.24%	$197.82
01/19/2022	02/18/2022	$1.110	2%	2.31%	$191.95
10/22/2021	11/19/2021	$1.110	2.21%	2.22%	$200.44
07/19/2021	08/20/2021	$1.110	2.19%	2.17%	$204.94
04/23/2021	05/20/2021	$1.030	1.79%	1.75%	$234.99
01/19/2021	02/19/2021	$1.030	2.12%	1.96%	$209.91
10/23/2020	11/20/2020	$1.030	2.44%	2.39%	$172.23
07/17/2020	08/20/2020	$1.030	3.01%	3%	$137.48
04/17/2020	05/20/2020	$1.030	3.54%	3.56%	$115.69
01/17/2020	02/20/2020	$1.030	2.79%	3.01%	$136.93
10/18/2019	11/20/2019	$1.030	3.15%	2.91%	$141.52
07/19/2019	08/20/2019	$1.030	3.02%	3.53%	$116.67
04/18/2019	05/20/2019	$0.860	2.4%	2.81%	$122.43
01/18/2019	02/20/2019	$0.860	2.52%	2.45%	$140.31
10/19/2018	11/20/2018	$0.860	2.62%	2.81%	$122.27
07/19/2018	08/20/2018	$0.860	2.47%	2.48%	$138.67
04/20/2018	05/21/2018	$0.780	2.04%	1.96%	$158.92
01/19/2018	02/20/2018	$0.780	1.83%	2.01%	$155.56
10/20/2017	11/20/2017	$0.780	2.38%	2.28%	$136.91
07/18/2017	08/21/2017	$0.780	2.91%	2.75%	$113.60
04/20/2017	05/22/2017	$0.770	3.25%	3.01%	$102.29
01/18/2017	02/20/2017	$0.770	3.3%	3.14%	$98.10
10/20/2016	11/21/2016	$0.770	3.56%	3.32%	$92.90
07/18/2016	08/22/2016	$0.770	3.86%	3.68%	$83.59
04/21/2016	05/20/2016	$0.770	3.92%	4.41%	$69.87
01/15/2016	02/22/2016	$0.770	5.14%	4.58%	$67.31
10/22/2015	11/20/2015	$0.770	4.35%	4.33%	$71.14
07/16/2015	08/20/2015	$0.770	3.68%	4.03%	$76.41
04/16/2015	05/20/2015	$0.700	3.32%	3.18%	$87.93
01/15/2015	02/20/2015	$0.700	3.32%	3.32%	$84.44
10/16/2014	11/20/2014	$0.700	3%	2.74%	$102.09
07/17/2014	08/20/2014	$0.700	2.57%	2.6%	$107.70
04/16/2014	05/20/2014	$0.600	2.33%	2.36%	$101.56
01/16/2014	02/20/2014	$0.600	2.61%	2.48%	$96.92
10/17/2013	11/20/2013	$0.600	2.8%	2.9%	$82.68
07/18/2013	08/20/2013	$0.600	2.8%	2.86%	$83.86
04/18/2013	05/20/2013	$0.520	2.59%	2.35%	$88.33
12/20/2012	12/31/2012	$0.520	2.32%	2.32%	$89.61
10/18/2012	11/20/2012	$0.520	2.4%	2.5%	$83.33
07/18/2012	08/20/2012	$0.520	2.52%	2.3%	$90.44
04/19/2012	05/21/2012	$0.460	1.71%	2%	$91.98
01/18/2012	02/20/2012	$0.460	1.76%	1.6%	$115.00
10/20/2011	11/21/2011	$0.460	2.18%	2.02%	$91.12
07/18/2011	08/22/2011	$0.460	1.71%	2.3%	$79.89
04/20/2011	05/20/2011	$0.440	1.63%	1.69%	$104.33
01/18/2011	02/21/2011	$0.440	1.83%	1.73%	$102.01
10/21/2010	11/22/2010	$0.440	2.23%	2.1%	$84.00
07/16/2010	08/20/2010	$0.440	2.75%	2.56%	$68.86
04/22/2010	05/20/2010	$0.420	2.49%	2.86%	$58.67
01/15/2010	02/22/2010	$0.420	2.79%	2.9%	$58.03
10/22/2009	11/20/2009	$0.420	2.86%	2.9%	$57.95
07/16/2009	08/20/2009	$0.420	4.92%	3.69%	$45.50
04/16/2009	05/20/2009	$0.420	5.14%	4.5%	$37.30
01/15/2009	02/20/2009	$0.420	4.27%	6.3%	$26.66
10/16/2008	11/20/2008	$0.420	3.97%	5.12%	$32.84
07/17/2008	08/20/2008	$0.420	2.34%	2.44%	$68.80
04/17/2008	05/20/2008	$0.360	1.83%	1.72%	$83.84
01/17/2008	02/20/2008	$0.360	2.31%	2.02%	$71.25
10/18/2007	11/20/2007	$0.360	1.85%	2.11%	$68.28
07/18/2007	08/20/2007	$0.360	1.67%	1.94%	$74.05
04/19/2007	05/21/2007	$0.300	1.75%	1.6%	$74.85
01/18/2007	02/20/2007	$0.300	2%	1.77%	$67.93
10/19/2006	11/20/2006	$0.300	1.74%	1.97%	$60.91
07/18/2006	08/21/2006	$0.300	1.73%	1.76%	$68.25
04/20/2006	05/22/2006	$0.250	1.28%	1.37%	$72.87
01/18/2006	02/20/2006	$0.250	1.62%	1.38%	$72.59
10/20/2005	11/21/2005	$0.250	1.85%	1.73%	$57.71
07/20/2005	08/19/2005	$0.250	1.88%	1.82%	$54.82
04/21/2005	05/20/2005	$0.205	1.83%	1.75%	$46.81
01/18/2005	02/21/2005	$0.205	1.77%	1.83%	$44.73
10/21/2004	11/22/2004	$0.205	2.13%	1.82%	$45.05
07/16/2004	08/20/2004	$0.205	2.11%	2.27%	$36.12
04/22/2004	05/20/2004	$0.185	1.76%	2.05%	$36.13
01/15/2004	02/20/2004	$0.185	1.78%	1.93%	$38.41
10/16/2003	11/20/2003	$0.185	1.99%	2.03%	$36.38
07/17/2003	08/20/2003	$0.175	2.2%	1.94%	$36.13
04/16/2003	05/20/2003	$0.175	2.72%	2.73%	$25.63
01/16/2003	02/20/2003	$0.175	2.96%	3.02%	$23.15
10/17/2002	11/20/2002	$0.175	3.47%	3.01%	$23.26
07/18/2002	08/20/2002	$0.175	3.28%	3.16%	$22.13
04/18/2002	05/20/2002	$0.175	2.55%	2.59%	$27.02
01/17/2002	02/20/2002	$0.175	2.84%	2.74%	$25.55
10/18/2001	11/20/2001	$0.175	3.02%	2.85%	$24.60
07/18/2001	08/20/2001	$0.175	2.66%	2.65%	$26.38
04/19/2001	05/21/2001	$0.170	2.85%	2.44%	$27.85
01/18/2001	02/20/2001	$0.170	3.26%	3.25%	$20.90
10/18/2000	11/20/2000	$0.170	4.56%	3.66%	$18.59
07/18/2000	08/21/2000	$0.170	3.6%	3.61%	$18.84
04/19/2000	05/22/2000	$0.163	3.46%	3.24%	$20.09
01/18/2000	02/21/2000	$0.163	2.6%	3.39%	$19.16
10/21/1999	11/22/1999	$0.163	2.49%	2.59%	$25.13
07/16/1999	08/20/1999	$0.163	2.21%	2.16%	$30.16
04/22/1999	05/20/1999	$0.150	2.01%	2.04%	$29.47
01/15/1999	02/22/1999	$0.150	2.52%	2.58%	$23.25
10/22/1998	11/20/1998	$0.150	2.54%	2.45%	$24.44
07/16/1998	08/20/1998	$0.150	2.26%	2.48%	$24.22
04/16/1998	05/20/1998	$0.125	1.78%	1.67%	$29.88
01/15/1998	02/20/1998	$0.125	2.2%	1.9%	$26.31
10/16/1997	11/20/1997	$0.125	1.69%	2.14%	$23.38
07/17/1997	08/20/1997	$0.125	1.78%	1.64%	$30.47
04/17/1997	05/20/1997	$0.100	1.87%	1.65%	$24.25
01/16/1997	02/20/1997	$0.100	2.06%	2.03%	$19.69
10/17/1996	11/20/1996	$0.100	2.15%	2.03%	$19.69
07/18/1996	08/20/1996	$0.100	2.37%	2.24%	$17.84
04/18/1996	05/20/1996	$0.088	2.14%	2.06%	$16.97
01/18/1996	02/20/1996	$0.088	2.36%	2.06%	$16.97
10/19/1995	11/20/1995	$0.088	2.67%	2.52%	$13.91
07/18/1995	08/21/1995	$0.088	1.96%	2.07%	$16.91
04/18/1995	05/22/1995	$0.063	1.77%	1.6%	$15.63
01/13/1995	02/20/1995	$0.063	1.75%	1.92%	$13.00
10/18/1994	11/21/1994	$0.038	1.07%	1.09%	$13.72
07/14/1994	08/22/1994	$0.038	1.11%	1.12%	$13.41
04/19/1994	05/20/1994	$0.019	0.55%	0.54%	$13.77
01/13/1994	01/17/1994	$0.019	0.66%	0.65%	$11.56
10/19/1993	10/21/1993	$0.019	0.73%	0.7%	$10.73
07/14/1993	08/20/1993	$0.019	0.78%	0.74%	$10.09
04/20/1993	04/22/1993	$0.019	0.98%	0.89%	$8.44
01/13/1993	01/15/1993	$0.019	1.08%	1.06%	$7.09
10/20/1992	11/20/1992	$0.019	1.12%	1.12%	$6.70
07/14/1992	08/20/1992	$0.019	1.12%	1.26%	$5.97
04/13/1992	05/20/1992	$0.019	1.22%	1.04%	$7.23
01/14/1992	02/20/1992	$0.019	1.41%	1.15%	$6.53
10/15/1991	11/20/1991	$0.038	2.66%	2.87%	$5.23
07/16/1991	08/20/1991	$0.038	2.52%	2.63%	$5.70
04/16/1991	04/18/1991	$0.038	2.42%	2.38%	$6.31
01/15/1991	02/20/1991	$0.038	2.62%	2.37%	$6.33
10/16/1990	11/20/1990	$0.038	3.1%	2.79%	$5.38
07/16/1990	08/20/1990	$0.038	2.25%	2.65%	$5.66
04/17/1990	05/21/1990	$0.038	1.99%	1.79%	$8.38
01/16/1990	02/20/1990	$0.038	2.1%	2.14%	$7.00
10/17/1989	11/20/1989	$0.038	2.04%	2.09%	$7.17
07/14/1989	08/21/1989	$0.038	2.02%	1.92%	$7.81
04/18/1989	05/22/1989	$0.038	2.04%	1.88%	$7.98
01/13/1989	02/20/1989	$0.038	1.78%	2%	$7.50
10/18/1988	11/21/1988	$0.024	1.29%	1.23%	$7.72
07/14/1988	08/22/1988	$0.024	1.18%	1.38%	$6.88
04/19/1988	05/20/1988	$0.023	1.2%	1.22%	$7.67
01/13/1988	02/22/1988	$0.023	1.26%	1.18%	$7.94
10/20/1987	11/20/1987	$0.016	1.08%	0.87%	$7.19
07/14/1987	08/20/1987	$0.016	0.83%	0.76%	$8.19
04/13/1987	05/20/1987	$0.016	1.06%	0.98%	$6.38
01/13/1987	02/20/1987	$0.016	1.18%	1.07%	$5.86
10/14/1986	10/16/1986	$0.016	1.32%	1.32%	$4.73
07/15/1986	07/17/1986	$0.016	1.13%	1.1%	$5.70
04/15/1986	04/17/1986	$0.016	1.02%	0.94%	$6.64
01/13/1986	01/15/1986	$0.016	1.2%	1.16%	$5.38
10/15/1985	10/17/1985	$0.016	1.36%	1.4%	$4.45
07/16/1985	07/18/1985	$0.016	1.37%	1.38%	$4.53
04/16/1985	04/18/1985	$0.016	1.53%	1.53%	$4.09
01/14/1985	01/16/1985	$0.016	1.68%	1.67%	$3.75
10/16/1984	10/18/1984	$0.016	1.66%	1.56%	$4.00
07/16/1984	07/18/1984	$0.047	3.99%	4.12%	$4.55
04/16/1984	04/18/1984	$0.047	3.28%	3.22%	$5.83
01/16/1984	01/18/1984	$0.047	0%	3.17%	$5.92
10/18/1983	10/20/1983	$0.047	0%	3.17%	$5.92
07/14/1983	07/18/1983	$0.047	0%	3.17%	$5.92
04/19/1983	04/21/1983	$0.047	0%	3.17%	$5.92
01/14/1983	01/19/1983	$0.047	0%	3.17%	$5.92
10/19/1982	10/21/1982	$0.047	0%	3.17%	$5.92
07/14/1982	07/16/1982	$0.084	0%	5.7%	$5.92
04/20/1982	04/22/1982	$0.084	0%	5.7%	$5.92
01/14/1982	01/18/1982	$0.084	0%	5.7%	$5.92

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for CAT

Based on past 10-year performance, here are CAT growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +24.83%
Dividend CAGR of +7.8%

Using CAT CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	CAT (DRIP)	CAT - No DRIP
Current Price	$815.78	$815.78
Start Shares	12.26	12.26
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	12.82	12.26
Dividends Payment	$3.45	$3.45
Annual Dividends	$177	$169
Yield on cost	1.77%	1.69%
Share Price	$7,496.87	$7,496.87
Total Dividends	$1,182	$1,147
Final Value	$96,131	$93,045

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - CAT

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on CAT's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) had its IPO on 1929-12-02, and is traded on NYSE stock exchange.

Caterpillar Inc., a global enterprise founded in 1925 and headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois (having previously operated as Caterpillar Tractor Co. until its rebranding in 1986), is a premier manufacturer and vendor of heavy construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas power units, and industrial gas turbines across the world. The company's extensive offerings are organized into several operational divisions: Construction Industries: This segment delivers a broad spectrum of machinery for construction projects, including asphalt pavers, versatile backhoe and skid steer loaders, various sizes of excavators (from compact to heavy-duty), compactors, road-building equipment like cold planers and motorgraders, pipelayers, site preparation tractors, telehandlers, and utility vehicles, alongside a range of wheel loaders and track-type equipment. Resource Industries: Dedicated to the mining sector, this division supplies powerful equipment such as electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, specialized hard rock vehicles, and a diverse fleet of mining, off-highway, and articulated trucks. It also offers longwall miners, wheel dozers, fleet management systems, autonomous vehicle solutions, crucial machinery components, selected work tools, and comprehensive safety and performance solutions for mining operations. Energy & Transportation: This segment focuses on power generation and propulsion systems. It provides reciprocating engines, generator sets, integrated power solutions, industrial turbines and associated services, remanufactured engines and parts, centrifugal gas compressors, and diesel-electric locomotives with related components and services. These products serve critical sectors including marine, oil and gas, industrial applications, and electric power generation. Financial Products: This segment supports customers with a variety of financial services, such as operating and finance leases, installment sale agreements, working capital loans, and wholesale financing schemes. It also offers insurance and risk management products tailored for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. All Other: This encompassing segment is responsible for manufacturing essential consumables and components like filters, fluids, undercarriage parts, and ground engaging tools.

CAT website: https://www.caterpillar.com

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DCF Model — CAT

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $815.78

—

Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →