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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF | NYSE

$114.53 -$0.67 | -0.58%

SIGNAL:

|2026-09-22 |F&G 29 |RSI 34.6

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $17.33B

Trailing PE: 8.5x

FWD PE *: 8.6x

Payout Ratio (TTM): 12.6%

52-Week Range: $75.42 - $141.96

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year CF Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 515% (19.91% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 435.0% (18.26% CAGR)

Share Price: 373.1% (16.81% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): 12.88%

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $61,451

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $51,451

Dividend Increase: 66.7% (5.37% CAGR)

Dividend Yield (FWD): 2.10% ($2.40)

CF 10-yr Total Return ($10K invested)

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

CF Share Price

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

CF Price CAGR:1Y: 32.51%2Y: 14.60%5Y: 13.38%10Y: 16.75%

CF Dividend Charts

CF - Dividends

CF Dividend CAGR:1Y: 20.00%2Y: 9.54%5Y: 14.87%10Y: 7.18%

CF - Dividend Payout Ratio

CF Dividend Payout Ratio CAGR:1Y: -49.53%2Y: -30.08%5Y: -16.71%10Y: -23.23%

CF - Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio

CF Dividend to FCF Ratio CAGR:1Y: -49.87%2Y: -25.93%5Y: -48.75%10Y: 0.00%

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CF Fundamentals: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

CF - Revenue

CF Revenue CAGR:1Y: 17.57%2Y: 18.89%5Y: 6.95%10Y: 6.96%

CF - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

CF EPS CAGR:1Y: 99.58%2Y: 43.41%5Y: 32.92%10Y: 37.21%

CF - Net Income

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CF Net Income CAGR:1Y: 125.13%2Y: 43.84%5Y: 28.71%10Y: 33.87%

CF - EBITDA

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CF EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 48.17%2Y: 24.44%5Y: 14.20%10Y: 8.63%

CF - Free Cash Flow

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CF Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 89.62%2Y: 24.19%5Y: 101.84%10Y: 0.00%

CF - Free Cash Flow / Share

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CF Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 102.44%2Y: 35.89%5Y: 116.27%10Y: 0.00%

CF - Operating Income

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CF Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 48.05%2Y: 31.49%5Y: 19.64%10Y: 16.57%

CF - Gross Profit

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CF Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 35.34%2Y: 29.86%5Y: 17.88%10Y: 8.07%

CF - Shares Outstanding

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CF Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: -5.64%2Y: -8.24%5Y: -6.61%10Y: -4.08%

CF - Share Buybacks

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CF Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 4.17%2Y: -14.11%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

CF - Stock-Based Comp

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CF Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: -25.00%2Y: 22.47%5Y: 2.38%10Y: 6.05%

CF - Expenses

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CF Expenses CAGR:1Y: 10.61%2Y: 79.62%5Y: 19.76%10Y: -9.09%

CF - Revenue vs Net Income

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CF - EPS vs FCF / Share

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CF - EPS vs PE Ratio

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CF - FCF vs FCF / Share

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CF - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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CF - Cash & Debt

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CF - Revenue by Segment

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CF Revenue CAGR:1Y: 17.57%2Y: 18.89%5Y: 6.95%10Y: 6.96%

CF - Revenue by Region

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CF Revenue CAGR:1Y: 17.57%2Y: 18.89%5Y: 6.95%10Y: 6.96%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

CF - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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CF Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 17.57%2Y: 18.89%5Y: 6.95%10Y: 6.96%

CF - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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CF Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 99.58%2Y: 43.41%5Y: 32.92%10Y: 37.21%

CF - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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CF Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 125.13%2Y: 43.84%5Y: 28.71%10Y: 33.87%

CF - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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CF Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 48.17%2Y: 24.44%5Y: 14.20%10Y: 8.63%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

CF - Net Profit Margin

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CF Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 60.24%2Y: 10.66%5Y: 16.13%10Y: 22.96%

CF - Gross Profit Margin

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CF Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 15.13%2Y: 9.23%5Y: 10.22%10Y: 1.04%

CF - Price to Earnings

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CF Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: -41.16%2Y: -15.41%5Y: -12.71%10Y: -15.26%

CF - Price To Sales Ratio

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CF Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: -5.62%2Y: -6.32%5Y: 1.40%10Y: 4.20%

CF - Return on Capital Employed

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CF Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: 27.34%2Y: 26.68%5Y: 13.15%10Y: 16.55%

CF - Return on Invested Capital

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CF Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: 30.71%2Y: 26.23%5Y: 3.27%10Y: 17.40%

CF Dividends Info:

Annual Dividend: $2.4

Forward Yield: 2.1%

Ex-Dividend Date: 2026-08-14

Lifetime Dividends / Share: $19.34

CF Dividend History: Dates, Payments & Yield list

Below is a schedule of all CF dividend payments, ex-dates, share price on the day of the payment as well as the annualized yield & forward yield

Ex-Date	Payment Date	Amount	Yield	Forward Yield	Price on Ex-Date
08/14/2026	08/31/2026	$0.600	2.03%	1.85%	$130.03
05/15/2026	05/29/2026	$0.500	1.6%	1.78%	$112.35
02/13/2026	02/27/2026	$0.500	2.11%	2.01%	$99.54
11/14/2025	11/28/2025	$0.500	2.35%	2.54%	$78.70
08/15/2025	08/29/2025	$0.500	2.33%	2.31%	$86.63
05/15/2025	05/30/2025	$0.500	2.32%	2.2%	$90.71
02/14/2025	02/28/2025	$0.500	2.42%	2.47%	$81.02
11/15/2024	11/29/2024	$0.500	2.3%	2.23%	$89.66
08/15/2024	08/30/2024	$0.500	2.51%	2.41%	$83.09
05/14/2024	05/31/2024	$0.500	2.69%	2.51%	$79.73
02/14/2024	02/29/2024	$0.500	2.58%	2.48%	$80.72
11/14/2023	11/30/2023	$0.400	2%	2.13%	$75.15
08/14/2023	08/31/2023	$0.400	2.05%	2.08%	$77.07
05/12/2023	05/31/2023	$0.400	2.4%	2.6%	$61.51
02/14/2023	02/28/2023	$0.400	1.87%	1.86%	$85.89
11/14/2022	11/30/2022	$0.400	1.48%	1.48%	$108.19
08/12/2022	08/31/2022	$0.400	1.53%	1.55%	$103.46
05/13/2022	05/31/2022	$0.400	1.54%	1.62%	$98.77
02/14/2022	02/28/2022	$0.300	1.68%	1.48%	$81.19
11/12/2021	11/30/2021	$0.300	1.86%	1.98%	$60.59
08/13/2021	08/31/2021	$0.300	2.48%	2.64%	$45.42
05/14/2021	05/28/2021	$0.300	2.21%	2.26%	$53.17
02/12/2021	02/26/2021	$0.300	2.71%	2.65%	$45.28
11/13/2020	11/30/2020	$0.300	3.88%	3.22%	$37.30
08/14/2020	08/31/2020	$0.300	3.42%	3.68%	$32.63
05/14/2020	05/29/2020	$0.300	4.87%	4.09%	$29.37
02/13/2020	02/28/2020	$0.300	3.05%	3.26%	$36.86
11/14/2019	11/29/2019	$0.300	2.59%	2.6%	$46.21
08/14/2019	08/30/2019	$0.300	2.54%	2.49%	$48.19
05/14/2019	05/31/2019	$0.300	2.91%	2.98%	$40.24
02/14/2019	02/28/2019	$0.300	2.82%	2.84%	$42.20
11/14/2018	11/30/2018	$0.300	2.66%	2.84%	$42.19
08/14/2018	08/31/2018	$0.300	2.5%	2.31%	$51.95
05/14/2018	05/31/2018	$0.300	2.97%	2.92%	$41.14
02/15/2018	02/28/2018	$0.300	2.93%	2.91%	$41.24
11/14/2017	11/30/2017	$0.300	3.38%	3.2%	$37.47
08/11/2017	08/31/2017	$0.300	3.93%	4.14%	$28.99
05/11/2017	05/31/2017	$0.300	4.41%	4.46%	$26.90
02/15/2017	02/28/2017	$0.300	3.48%	3.82%	$31.42
11/10/2016	11/30/2016	$0.300	4.42%	4.15%	$28.94
08/11/2016	08/31/2016	$0.300	5.39%	4.62%	$26.00
05/11/2016	05/31/2016	$0.300	4.07%	4.34%	$27.66
02/10/2016	02/29/2016	$0.300	4.31%	3.29%	$36.46
11/12/2015	11/30/2015	$0.300	2.55%	2.6%	$46.14
08/12/2015	08/31/2015	$0.300	1.95%	2.09%	$57.38
05/13/2015	05/29/2015	$0.300	1.97%	1.9%	$63.18
02/12/2015	02/27/2015	$0.300	1.98%	1.96%	$61.25
11/12/2014	11/28/2014	$0.300	2.25%	2.24%	$53.63
08/14/2014	08/29/2014	$0.300	2.42%	2.33%	$51.53
05/14/2014	05/30/2014	$0.200	1.61%	1.64%	$48.66
02/12/2014	02/28/2014	$0.200	1.75%	1.59%	$50.18
11/13/2013	11/29/2013	$0.200	1.84%	1.84%	$43.48
08/14/2013	08/29/2013	$0.080	0.85%	0.84%	$37.87
05/15/2013	05/30/2013	$0.080	0.84%	0.82%	$38.94
02/14/2013	02/28/2013	$0.080	0.73%	0.8%	$40.17
11/14/2012	11/29/2012	$0.080	0.82%	0.75%	$42.66
08/10/2012	08/29/2012	$0.080	0.77%	0.77%	$41.50
05/11/2012	05/30/2012	$0.080	0.93%	0.93%	$34.52
02/10/2012	02/29/2012	$0.080	0.89%	0.86%	$37.20
11/09/2011	11/29/2011	$0.080	0.96%	1.11%	$28.75
08/11/2011	08/29/2011	$0.080	0.97%	0.85%	$37.72
05/12/2011	05/27/2011	$0.020	0.3%	0.26%	$31.04
02/10/2011	03/01/2011	$0.020	0.27%	0.29%	$27.39
11/10/2010	11/29/2010	$0.020	0.32%	0.33%	$24.41
08/11/2010	08/31/2010	$0.020	0.49%	0.43%	$18.50
05/12/2010	06/01/2010	$0.020	0.54%	0.61%	$13.19
02/18/2010	03/01/2010	$0.020	0.39%	0.37%	$21.51
11/12/2009	11/30/2009	$0.020	0.49%	0.47%	$17.07
08/12/2009	08/31/2009	$0.020	0.49%	0.49%	$16.33
05/12/2009	06/01/2009	$0.020	0.52%	0.5%	$16.06
02/12/2009	03/02/2009	$0.020	0.73%	0.68%	$11.74
11/12/2008	12/01/2008	$0.020	0.77%	0.9%	$8.84
08/13/2008	09/02/2008	$0.020	0.29%	0.29%	$27.60
05/13/2008	06/02/2008	$0.020	0.29%	0.29%	$27.90
02/20/2008	02/29/2008	$0.020	0.32%	0.33%	$24.42
11/13/2007	11/30/2007	$0.004	0.09%	0.09%	$18.20
08/13/2007	08/31/2007	$0.004	0.14%	0.13%	$12.67
05/10/2007	05/31/2007	$0.004	0.2%	0.18%	$8.95
02/15/2007	02/28/2007	$0.004	0.23%	0.21%	$7.73
11/09/2006	11/30/2006	$0.004	0.39%	0.35%	$4.55
08/10/2006	08/31/2006	$0.004	0.54%	0.5%	$3.17
05/11/2006	05/31/2006	$0.004	0.47%	0.47%	$3.42
03/02/2006	03/15/2006	$0.004	0.46%	0.48%	$3.34
11/09/2005	11/30/2005	$0.004	0.59%	0.52%	$3.09

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for CF

Based on past 10-year performance, here are CF growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +16.75%
Dividend CAGR of +7.18%

Using CF CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	CF (DRIP)	CF - No DRIP
Current Price	$114.53	$114.53
Start Shares	87.31	87.31
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	101.11	87.31
Dividends Payment	$1.20	$1.20
Annual Dividends	$485	$419
Yield on cost	4.85%	4.19%
Share Price	$538.69	$538.69
Total Dividends	$3,197	$2,920
Final Value	$54,465	$49,955

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - CF

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on CF's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) had its IPO on 2005-08-11, and is traded on NYSE stock exchange.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emissions reduction, and numerous other industrial applications. The company's core product lineup features vital nitrogen compounds such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and different forms of ammonium nitrate. In addition to these primary offerings, CF Industries also provides specialized chemicals like diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia, alongside complex fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Its diverse customer base includes agricultural cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, commodity traders, wholesalers, and a wide array of industrial end-users. Founded in 1946, the firm is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

CF website: https://www.cfindustries.com

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DCF Model — CF

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $114.53

—

Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →