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CMG | NYSE

$31.79 -$0.16 | -0.50%

SIGNAL:

|2026-09-16 |F&G 23 |RSI 34.4

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $40.43B

Trailing PE: 29.2x

FWD PE *: 25.1x

Payout Ratio (TTM): —

52-Week Range: $28.04 - $42.82

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year CMG Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 268.8% (13.94% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 268.8% (13.94% CAGR)

Share Price: 275.3% (14.14% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): —

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $36,879

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $26,879

CMG Total Return

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

CMG Price Chart

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

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CMG Fundamentals: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

CMG - Revenue

CMG Revenue CAGR:1Y: 9.31%2Y: 6.13%5Y: 12.09%10Y: 12.86%

CMG - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

CMG EPS CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: -1.53%5Y: 19.74%10Y: 33.80%

CMG - Net Income

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CMG Net Income CAGR:1Y: -7.47%2Y: -5.89%5Y: 16.51%10Y: 31.76%

CMG - EBITDA

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CMG EBITDA CAGR:1Y: -5.50%2Y: -3.93%5Y: 14.79%10Y: 22.31%

CMG - Free Cash Flow

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CMG Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 15.63%2Y: 4.78%5Y: 28.67%10Y: 23.94%

CMG - Free Cash Flow / Share

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CMG Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 20.76%2Y: 8.18%5Y: 30.96%10Y: 25.50%

CMG - Operating Income

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CMG Operating Income CAGR:1Y: -8.61%2Y: -5.30%5Y: 16.44%10Y: 29.09%

CMG - Gross Profit

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CMG Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 0.76%2Y: -0.87%5Y: 12.78%10Y: 18.47%

CMG - Shares Outstanding

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CMG Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: -4.43%2Y: -3.35%5Y: -1.96%10Y: -1.27%

CMG - Share Buybacks

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CMG Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 47.52%2Y: 112.09%5Y: 34.98%10Y: 18.85%

CMG - Stock-Based Comp

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CMG Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

CMG - Expenses

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CMG Expenses CAGR:1Y: 35.30%2Y: 24.36%5Y: 11.60%10Y: 13.04%

CMG - Revenue vs Net Income

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CMG - EPS vs FCF / Share

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CMG - EPS vs PE Ratio

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CMG - FCF vs FCF / Share

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CMG - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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CMG - Cash & Debt

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CMG - Revenue by Segment

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CMG Revenue CAGR:1Y: 9.31%2Y: 6.13%5Y: 12.09%10Y: 12.86%

CMG - Revenue by Region

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CMG Revenue CAGR:1Y: 9.31%2Y: 6.13%5Y: 12.09%10Y: 12.86%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

CMG - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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CMG Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 9.31%2Y: 6.13%5Y: 12.09%10Y: 12.86%

CMG - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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CMG Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: -1.53%5Y: 19.74%10Y: 33.80%

CMG - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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CMG Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: -7.47%2Y: -5.89%5Y: 16.51%10Y: 31.76%

CMG - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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CMG Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: -5.50%2Y: -3.93%5Y: 14.79%10Y: 22.31%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

CMG - Net Profit Margin

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CMG Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -15.38%2Y: -11.34%5Y: 3.95%10Y: 16.75%

CMG - Gross Profit Margin

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CMG Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -7.82%2Y: -6.60%5Y: 0.61%10Y: 4.97%

CMG - Price to Earnings

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CMG Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: -39.45%2Y: -24.68%5Y: -14.93%10Y: -13.59%

CMG - Price To Sales Ratio

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CMG Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: -46.96%2Y: -32.31%5Y: -10.72%10Y: 1.04%

CMG - Return on Capital Employed

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CMG Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: -1.51%2Y: -3.27%5Y: 9.24%10Y: 12.01%

CMG - Return on Invested Capital

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CMG Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: -1.96%2Y: -3.20%5Y: 8.99%10Y: 13.90%

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for CMG

Based on past 10-year performance, here are CMG growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +14.14%
Dividend CAGR of +0%

Using CMG CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	CMG (DRIP)	CMG - No DRIP
Current Price	$31.79	$31.79
Start Shares	314.56	314.56
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	314.56	314.56
Dividends Payment	$0.00	$0.00
Annual Dividends	$0	$0
Yield on cost	0.00%	0.00%
Share Price	$31.79	$31.79
Total Dividends	$0	$0
Final Value	$10,000	$10,000

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - CMG

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on CMG's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) had its IPO on 2006-01-26, and is traded on NYSE stock exchange.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

CMG website: https://www.chipotle.com

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DCF Model — CMG

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $31.79

—

Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →