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The GEO Group, Inc. GEO | NYSE

$32.19 $0.46 | 1.45%

TREND SIGNAL: Signal available — unlock to view

|2026-10-13

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $4.24B

Trailing PE: 15.2x

FWD PE *: 22.1x

Payout Ratio (TTM): 1.1%

52-Week Range: $12.51 - $33.17

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year GEO Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 219.4% (12.32% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 156.7% (9.89% CAGR)

Share Price: 104.9% (7.44% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): 9.92%

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $31,944

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $21,944

Dividend Increase: -27.1% (-7.20% CAGR)

Dividend Yield (FWD): 3.11% ($1.00)

GEO 10-yr Total Return ($10K invested)

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

GEO Share Price

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

GEO Price CAGR:1Y: 85.75%2Y: 47.73%5Y: 31.14%10Y: 7.44%

GEO Dividend Charts

GEO - Dividends

GEO Dividend CAGR:1Y: -47.92%2Y: -27.83%5Y: -10.42%10Y: 7.74%

GEO - Dividend Payout Ratio

GEO Dividend Payout Ratio CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

GEO - Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio

GEO Dividend to FCF Ratio CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

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GEO Financials: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

GEO - Revenue

GEO Revenue CAGR:1Y: 15.08%2Y: 9.80%5Y: 5.30%10Y: 2.93%

GEO - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

GEO EPS CAGR:1Y: 71.43%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 4.42%10Y: 5.54%

GEO - Net Income

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GEO Net Income CAGR:1Y: 63.05%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 6.43%10Y: 7.42%

GEO - EBITDA

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GEO EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 24.12%2Y: 122.10%5Y: 4.49%10Y: 3.30%

GEO - Free Cash Flow

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GEO Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 2,420.03%2Y: 194.90%5Y: -1.35%10Y: 4.51%

GEO - Free Cash Flow / Share

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GEO Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 8,637.63%2Y: 432.99%5Y: 23.01%10Y: 15.76%

GEO - Operating Income

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GEO Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 41.31%2Y: 12.65%5Y: 7.03%10Y: 4.43%

GEO - Gross Profit

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GEO Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 15.08%2Y: 9.80%5Y: 35.48%10Y: 18.73%

GEO - Shares Outstanding

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GEO Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: -6.01%2Y: 0.58%5Y: 1.85%10Y: 1.71%

GEO - Share Buybacks

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GEO Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 225.02%10Y: -24.55%

GEO - Stock-Based Comp

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GEO Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: -10.59%2Y: 25.37%5Y: 4.12%10Y: 4.25%

GEO - Expenses

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GEO Expenses CAGR:1Y: -44.05%2Y: -8.14%5Y: 3.83%10Y: 1.59%

GEO - Revenue vs Net Income

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GEO - EPS vs FCF / Share

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GEO - EPS vs PE Ratio

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GEO - FCF vs FCF / Share

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GEO - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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GEO - Cash & Debt

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GEO - Revenue by Segment

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GEO Revenue CAGR:1Y: 15.08%2Y: 9.80%5Y: 5.30%10Y: 2.93%

GEO - Revenue by Region

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GEO Revenue CAGR:1Y: 15.08%2Y: 9.80%5Y: 5.30%10Y: 2.93%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

GEO - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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GEO Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 15.08%2Y: 9.80%5Y: 5.30%10Y: 2.93%

GEO - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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GEO Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 71.43%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 4.42%10Y: 5.54%

GEO - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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GEO Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 63.05%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 6.43%10Y: 7.42%

GEO - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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GEO Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 24.12%2Y: 122.10%5Y: 4.49%10Y: 3.30%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

GEO - Net Profit Margin

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GEO Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 41.70%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 1.08%10Y: 4.37%

GEO - Gross Profit Margin

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GEO Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 28.66%10Y: 15.35%

GEO - Price to Earnings

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GEO Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: -28.03%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 27.18%10Y: -2.80%

GEO - Price To Sales Ratio

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GEO Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: 1.08%2Y: 27.74%5Y: 28.30%10Y: 1.34%

GEO - Return on Capital Employed

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GEO Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: 30.46%2Y: 10.91%5Y: 11.81%10Y: 4.28%

GEO - Return on Invested Capital

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GEO Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: 36.67%2Y: 19.71%5Y: 6.52%10Y: 2.29%

GEO Dividends Info:

Annual Dividend: $1

Forward Yield: 3.11%

Ex-Dividend Date: 2021-01-22

Lifetime Dividends / Share: $18.09

GEO Dividend History: Dates, Payments & Yield list

Below is a schedule of all GEO dividend payments, ex-dates, share price on the day of the payment as well as the annualized yield & forward yield

Ex-Date	Payment Date	Amount	Yield	Forward Yield	Price on Ex-Date
01/22/2021	02/01/2021	$0.250	11.96%	11.12%	$8.99
10/15/2020	10/23/2020	$0.340	12.5%	15.11%	$9.00
07/16/2020	07/24/2020	$0.480	16.45%	17.79%	$10.79
04/16/2020	04/24/2020	$0.480	15.13%	16.4%	$11.71
02/13/2020	02/21/2020	$0.480	11.01%	11.07%	$17.34
10/24/2019	11/01/2019	$0.480	12.16%	12.29%	$15.62
07/18/2019	07/26/2019	$0.480	10.82%	11.64%	$16.50
04/12/2019	04/22/2019	$0.480	9.76%	10.11%	$18.99
02/14/2019	02/22/2019	$0.480	8.37%	8.19%	$23.44
10/25/2018	11/02/2018	$0.470	7.87%	8.45%	$22.24
07/19/2018	07/27/2018	$0.470	7.18%	7.32%	$25.67
04/20/2018	05/03/2018	$0.470	8.77%	7.54%	$24.95
02/15/2018	02/27/2018	$0.470	9.41%	8.79%	$21.38
10/20/2017	10/30/2017	$0.470	7.18%	7.43%	$25.29
07/19/2017	07/28/2017	$0.470	6.27%	6.35%	$29.62
05/05/2017	05/19/2017	$0.470	5.88%	6.03%	$31.20
02/15/2017	02/27/2017	$0.467	6.19%	5.72%	$32.65
10/27/2016	11/10/2016	$0.433	11.18%	8.73%	$19.85
07/28/2016	08/12/2016	$0.433	7.66%	8.02%	$21.62
04/28/2016	05/12/2016	$0.433	7.98%	7.95%	$21.81
02/11/2016	02/26/2016	$0.433	9.97%	9.09%	$19.07
11/12/2015	11/25/2015	$0.433	9.21%	8.73%	$19.86
08/12/2015	08/24/2015	$0.413	7.28%	8.37%	$19.75
05/07/2015	05/21/2015	$0.413	6.75%	6.5%	$25.44
02/12/2015	02/27/2015	$0.413	5.8%	5.75%	$28.77
11/13/2014	11/26/2014	$0.413	6.25%	6.07%	$27.23
08/14/2014	08/29/2014	$0.380	6.09%	6.09%	$24.95
05/13/2014	05/27/2014	$0.380	6.83%	6.73%	$22.59
02/27/2014	03/14/2014	$0.380	7.07%	7.15%	$21.27
11/12/2013	11/26/2013	$0.367	6.65%	6.74%	$21.77
08/15/2013	08/29/2013	$0.333	6.09%	6.28%	$21.23
05/16/2013	06/03/2013	$0.333	5.33%	5.73%	$23.25
02/13/2013	03/01/2013	$0.333	6.06%	5.8%	$22.99
12/10/2012	12/31/2012	$3.787	78.85%	80.57%	$18.80
11/14/2012	11/30/2012	$0.133	2.95%	2.84%	$18.80
08/17/2012	09/07/2012	$0.133	3.12%	2.89%	$18.47

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for GEO

Based on past 10-year performance, here are GEO growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +7.44%
Dividend CAGR of +7.77%

Using GEO CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	GEO (DRIP)	GEO - No DRIP
Current Price	$32.19	$32.19
Start Shares	310.66	310.66
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	425.15	310.66
Dividends Payment	$0.53	$0.53
Annual Dividends	$898	$656
Yield on cost	8.98%	6.56%
Share Price	$65.96	$65.96
Total Dividends	$5,304	$4,451
Final Value	$28,042	$24,941

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - GEO

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on GEO's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) had its IPO on 1994-07-27, and is traded on NYSE stock exchange.

The GEO Group, Inc. is dedicated to the operation, leasing, and ownership of secure correctional centers, administrative processing hubs, and community reentry facilities situated in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. The company's operations are segmented into four main areas: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. GEO Group provides a comprehensive suite of services. This includes offering counseling, educational programs, and treatment for alcohol and drug dependency within its various locations. It also leverages compliance technologies for monitoring services and implements empirically supported supervision and rehabilitation programs for individuals on parole, probation, or awaiting trial in a community setting. The firm's secure facility management services span security protocols, administrative tasks, rehabilitative initiatives, educational opportunities, and food provision. Its reentry services involve overseeing individuals in community-based programs and specialized centers, furnishing temporary housing, structured programming, employment assistance, and other essential support. Furthermore, GEO Group delivers monitoring and reporting solutions aimed at enhancing the participation of non-detained foreign nationals in the immigration court system. Additional services include secure transportation. Under its "GEO Continuum of Care" platform, the company offers extensive rehabilitation services, encompassing evidence-based cognitive behavioral therapy, post-release support, and academic and vocational training focused on life skills and therapeutic interventions. Beyond its operational roles, GEO Group also develops, designs, constructs, and finances new facilities, often under contract. Established in 1984, The GEO Group, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Boca Raton, Florida.

GEO website: https://www.geogroup.com

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DCF Model — GEO

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $32.19

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Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →