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Commerce Bancshares, Inc. CBSH | NASDAQ

$55.71 $0.15 | 0.27%

TREND SIGNAL: Signal available — unlock to view

|2026-09-01

Next Earnings: Oct 20, 2026

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $7.99B

Trailing PE: 13.6x

FWD PE *: 12.6x

Payout Ratio (TTM): 26.7%

52-Week Range: $46.99 - $60.92

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year CBSH Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 126.6% (8.52% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 118.4% (8.12% CAGR)

Share Price: 88.5% (6.54% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): 4.47%

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $22,657

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $12,657

Dividend Increase: 63.8% (5.19% CAGR)

Dividend Yield (FWD): 1.97% ($1.10)

CBSH 10-yr Total Return ($10K invested)

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

CBSH Share Price

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

CBSH Price CAGR:1Y: 11.64%2Y: -0.20%5Y: -0.04%10Y: 6.54%

CBSH Dividend Charts

CBSH - Dividends

CBSH Dividend CAGR:1Y: 5.00%2Y: 5.97%5Y: 4.91%10Y: 5.06%

CBSH - Dividend Payout Ratio

CBSH Dividend Payout Ratio CAGR:1Y: -0.61%2Y: 0.89%5Y: 6.12%10Y: -2.94%

CBSH - Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio

CBSH Dividend to FCF Ratio CAGR:1Y: -38.09%2Y: -2.18%5Y: -2.18%10Y: -4.69%

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Combined 55% Lifetime Discount

CBSH Financials: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

CBSH - Revenue

CBSH Revenue CAGR:1Y: -7.14%2Y: -2.50%5Y: 6.33%10Y: 5.36%

CBSH - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

CBSH EPS CAGR:1Y: -2.63%2Y: 4.32%5Y: -0.53%10Y: 9.45%

CBSH - Net Income

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CBSH Net Income CAGR:1Y: 4.79%2Y: 7.01%5Y: -0.31%10Y: 8.62%

CBSH - EBITDA

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CBSH EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 4.66%2Y: 6.59%5Y: -0.24%10Y: 6.99%

CBSH - Free Cash Flow

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CBSH Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 68.24%2Y: 10.35%5Y: 8.14%10Y: 10.62%

CBSH - Free Cash Flow / Share

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CBSH Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 54.56%2Y: 6.69%5Y: 7.93%10Y: 11.04%

CBSH - Operating Income

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CBSH Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 4.99%2Y: 6.95%5Y: -0.53%10Y: 7.35%

CBSH - Gross Profit

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CBSH Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: -9.37%2Y: -1.63%5Y: -0.53%10Y: 3.66%

CBSH - Shares Outstanding

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CBSH Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: 8.84%2Y: 3.37%5Y: 0.19%10Y: -0.38%

CBSH - Share Buybacks

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CBSH Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 844.85%2Y: 72.06%5Y: 51.67%10Y: 59.83%

CBSH - Stock-Based Comp

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CBSH Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 59.52%2Y: 24.08%5Y: 11.20%10Y: 8.40%

CBSH - Expenses

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CBSH Expenses CAGR:1Y: 19.51%2Y: 22.50%5Y: 2.62%10Y: 7.39%

CBSH - Revenue vs Net Income

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CBSH - EPS vs FCF / Share

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CBSH - EPS vs PE Ratio

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CBSH - FCF vs FCF / Share

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CBSH - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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CBSH - Cash & Debt

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CBSH - Revenue by Segment

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CBSH Revenue CAGR:1Y: -7.14%2Y: -2.50%5Y: 6.33%10Y: 5.36%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

CBSH - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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CBSH Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: -7.14%2Y: -2.50%5Y: 6.33%10Y: 5.36%

CBSH - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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CBSH Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: -2.63%2Y: 4.32%5Y: -0.53%10Y: 9.45%

CBSH - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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CBSH Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 4.79%2Y: 7.01%5Y: -0.31%10Y: 8.62%

CBSH - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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CBSH Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 4.66%2Y: 6.59%5Y: -0.24%10Y: 6.99%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

CBSH - Net Profit Margin

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CBSH Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 12.86%2Y: 9.75%5Y: -6.25%10Y: 3.09%

CBSH - Gross Profit Margin

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CBSH Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -2.40%2Y: 0.89%5Y: -6.45%10Y: -1.62%

CBSH - Price to Earnings

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CBSH Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: 0.17%2Y: 3.43%5Y: 0.30%10Y: -2.25%

CBSH - Price To Sales Ratio

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CBSH Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: 14.32%2Y: 13.91%5Y: -6.00%10Y: 1.15%

CBSH - Return on Capital Employed

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CBSH Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: -86.59%2Y: -63.91%5Y: -34.54%10Y: -15.71%

CBSH - Return on Invested Capital

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CBSH Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: -28.65%2Y: -15.24%5Y: -9.15%10Y: 0.54%

CBSH Dividends Info:

Annual Dividend: $1.1

Forward Yield: 1.97%

Ex-Dividend Date: 2026-09-04

Lifetime Dividends / Share: $19.66

CBSH Dividend History: Dates, Payments & Yield list

Below is a schedule of all CBSH dividend payments, ex-dates, share price on the day of the payment as well as the annualized yield & forward yield

Ex-Date	Payment Date	Amount	Yield	Forward Yield	Price on Ex-Date
09/04/2026	09/22/2026	$0.275	1.88%	1.98%	$55.68
06/05/2026	06/23/2026	$0.275	2.07%	1.97%	$55.96
03/06/2026	03/24/2026	$0.275	2.18%	2.27%	$48.44
12/02/2025	12/15/2025	$0.275	2.17%	2.05%	$53.54
09/05/2025	09/23/2025	$0.262	1.82%	1.88%	$55.86
06/06/2025	06/24/2025	$0.275	1.82%	1.88%	$58.54
03/07/2025	03/25/2025	$0.275	1.86%	1.84%	$59.86
12/03/2024	12/17/2024	$0.245	1.5%	1.54%	$63.53
09/05/2024	09/23/2024	$0.245	1.73%	1.75%	$56.09
06/05/2024	06/18/2024	$0.245	1.99%	2.02%	$48.59
03/06/2024	03/25/2024	$0.245	2.04%	2.1%	$46.61
12/01/2023	12/18/2023	$0.233	2.08%	1.9%	$49.06
09/05/2023	09/25/2023	$0.233	2.2%	2.26%	$41.33
06/02/2023	06/20/2023	$0.233	2.14%	2.23%	$41.83
03/06/2023	03/27/2023	$0.233	1.65%	1.86%	$50.15
12/01/2022	12/16/2022	$0.229	1.5%	1.64%	$55.89
09/06/2022	09/22/2022	$0.229	1.65%	1.62%	$56.53
06/06/2022	06/22/2022	$0.229	1.62%	1.71%	$53.57
03/07/2022	03/23/2022	$0.229	1.61%	1.57%	$58.28
12/01/2021	12/17/2021	$0.227	1.69%	1.62%	$55.95
09/03/2021	09/23/2021	$0.216	1.57%	1.62%	$53.35
06/03/2021	06/21/2021	$0.216	1.43%	1.51%	$57.50
03/08/2021	03/24/2021	$0.216	1.4%	1.48%	$58.45
12/01/2020	12/18/2020	$0.222	1.8%	1.81%	$49.14
09/03/2020	09/21/2020	$0.212	1.92%	2.08%	$40.59
06/04/2020	06/22/2020	$0.212	1.73%	1.86%	$45.41
03/05/2020	03/23/2020	$0.212	1.9%	2.46%	$34.41
12/02/2019	12/18/2019	$0.204	1.72%	1.61%	$50.46
09/05/2019	09/23/2019	$0.204	1.99%	1.89%	$43.18
06/06/2019	06/24/2019	$0.204	1.95%	2%	$40.75
03/07/2019	03/25/2019	$0.204	1.9%	2.03%	$40.06
11/29/2018	12/17/2018	$0.184	1.67%	1.79%	$41.07
09/06/2018	09/24/2018	$0.175	1.45%	1.52%	$46.06
06/07/2018	06/25/2018	$0.175	1.55%	1.58%	$44.43
03/08/2018	03/26/2018	$0.175	1.73%	1.73%	$40.47
11/29/2017	12/18/2017	$0.168	1.74%	1.76%	$38.24
09/07/2017	09/25/2017	$0.168	1.99%	1.85%	$36.26
06/07/2017	06/26/2017	$0.168	1.93%	1.86%	$36.03
03/08/2017	03/27/2017	$0.168	1.8%	1.9%	$35.26
11/30/2016	12/19/2016	$0.168	1.9%	1.8%	$37.37
09/07/2016	09/26/2016	$0.168	2.18%	2.26%	$29.69
06/08/2016	06/27/2016	$0.168	2.24%	2.44%	$27.53
03/09/2016	03/28/2016	$0.168	2.51%	2.45%	$27.37
11/24/2015	12/14/2015	$0.160	2.28%	2.46%	$26.01
09/09/2015	09/28/2015	$0.160	2.49%	2.43%	$26.29
06/03/2015	06/26/2015	$0.160	2.42%	2.3%	$27.80
03/04/2015	03/26/2015	$0.160	2.62%	2.6%	$24.63
11/25/2014	12/15/2014	$0.152	2.4%	2.47%	$24.65
09/03/2014	09/25/2014	$0.152	2.37%	2.43%	$25.09
06/03/2014	06/23/2014	$0.152	2.5%	2.39%	$25.53
03/03/2014	03/24/2014	$0.152	2.49%	2.35%	$25.95
11/26/2013	12/16/2013	$0.145	2.31%	2.33%	$24.82
09/04/2013	09/23/2013	$0.145	2.54%	2.56%	$22.64
06/05/2013	06/24/2013	$0.145	2.55%	2.55%	$22.76
03/04/2013	03/25/2013	$0.145	2.9%	2.69%	$21.53
11/28/2012	12/17/2012	$1.062	22.65%	22.55%	$18.84
09/05/2012	09/25/2012	$0.141	2.76%	2.76%	$20.49
06/06/2012	06/26/2012	$0.141	3.03%	3.02%	$18.73
03/07/2012	04/02/2012	$0.141	2.94%	2.75%	$20.53
11/28/2011	12/19/2011	$0.134	3.02%	2.95%	$18.21
09/07/2011	09/26/2011	$0.141	3.09%	3.3%	$17.14
06/08/2011	06/27/2011	$0.141	2.89%	2.82%	$20.03
03/09/2011	03/28/2011	$0.141	2.87%	2.99%	$18.89
12/02/2010	12/20/2010	$0.138	3.04%	2.9%	$18.97
09/07/2010	09/27/2010	$0.144	3.45%	3.36%	$17.16
06/09/2010	06/28/2010	$0.144	3.53%	3.44%	$16.79
03/08/2010	03/26/2010	$0.144	3.11%	3.09%	$18.65
11/25/2009	12/15/2009	$0.141	3.12%	3.13%	$17.99
09/09/2009	09/25/2009	$0.140	3.48%	3.54%	$15.84
06/05/2009	06/26/2009	$0.140	4.17%	4.03%	$13.94
03/06/2009	03/27/2009	$0.140	4.47%	3.57%	$15.74
11/12/2008	12/01/2008	$0.139	3.15%	3.31%	$16.80
09/10/2008	09/26/2008	$0.139	2.92%	2.9%	$19.23
06/05/2008	06/27/2008	$0.139	3.06%	3.32%	$16.77
03/06/2008	03/28/2008	$0.139	3.39%	3.22%	$17.29
11/27/2007	12/13/2007	$0.133	2.94%	2.9%	$18.30
09/11/2007	09/26/2007	$0.133	2.94%	2.93%	$18.13
06/05/2007	06/27/2007	$0.133	2.86%	2.93%	$18.07
03/07/2007	03/28/2007	$0.133	2.76%	2.77%	$19.13
11/27/2006	12/13/2006	$0.124	2.61%	2.58%	$19.19
09/11/2006	09/27/2006	$0.124	2.64%	2.6%	$19.01
06/05/2006	06/27/2006	$0.124	2.58%	2.64%	$18.72
03/07/2006	03/28/2006	$0.124	2.55%	2.54%	$19.52
11/25/2005	12/13/2005	$0.121	2.48%	2.41%	$20.08
09/09/2005	09/27/2005	$0.115	2.42%	2.5%	$18.44
06/03/2005	06/27/2005	$0.115	2.61%	2.57%	$17.94
03/07/2005	03/28/2005	$0.115	2.69%	2.72%	$16.99
11/24/2004	12/13/2004	$0.078	1.79%	1.78%	$17.62
09/09/2004	09/27/2004	$0.105	2.53%	2.63%	$16.02
06/03/2004	06/28/2004	$0.105	2.72%	2.7%	$15.59
03/04/2004	03/26/2004	$0.105	2.49%	2.61%	$16.15
11/25/2003	12/12/2003	$0.103	2.55%	2.5%	$16.52
09/10/2003	09/26/2003	$0.098	2.79%	2.75%	$14.28
06/04/2003	06/26/2003	$0.072	2.15%	2.27%	$12.67
03/05/2003	03/27/2003	$0.072	2.35%	2.41%	$11.95
11/26/2002	12/13/2002	$0.071	2.22%	2.21%	$12.89
09/11/2002	09/27/2002	$0.068	2.05%	2.22%	$12.19
06/05/2002	06/27/2002	$0.068	1.94%	1.98%	$13.70
03/06/2002	03/28/2002	$0.068	2.07%	1.98%	$13.71
11/28/2001	12/14/2001	$0.066	2.27%	2.24%	$11.85
09/12/2001	09/28/2001	$0.045	1.55%	1.62%	$11.11
06/06/2001	06/29/2001	$0.063	2.25%	2.32%	$10.90
03/07/2001	03/30/2001	$0.063	2.05%	2.19%	$11.55
11/28/2000	12/15/2000	$0.061	2.2%	2.1%	$11.70
09/13/2000	09/29/2000	$0.058	2.15%	2.15%	$10.87
06/07/2000	06/29/2000	$0.058	2.29%	2.38%	$9.82
03/07/2000	03/30/2000	$0.058	2.84%	2.66%	$8.79
11/26/1999	12/17/1999	$0.057	2.05%	2.27%	$9.97
09/13/1999	09/29/1999	$0.054	2.16%	2.18%	$9.88
06/09/1999	06/29/1999	$0.054	1.92%	1.91%	$11.25
03/05/1999	03/30/1999	$0.054	1.85%	2.01%	$10.72
11/25/1998	12/18/1998	$0.033	1.07%	1.12%	$11.83
09/10/1998	09/29/1998	$0.050	1.82%	1.79%	$11.05
06/05/1998	06/30/1998	$0.050	1.53%	1.52%	$13.07
03/05/1998	03/30/1998	$0.050	1.56%	1.56%	$12.76
11/25/1997	12/12/1997	$0.044	1.64%	1.48%	$12.03
09/10/1997	09/29/1997	$0.044	1.94%	1.77%	$10.05
06/05/1997	06/30/1997	$0.044	2.36%	2.31%	$7.70
03/05/1997	03/31/1997	$0.044	2.21%	2.29%	$7.76
11/26/1996	12/13/1996	$0.029	1.51%	1.51%	$7.74
09/10/1996	09/27/1996	$0.039	2.51%	2.47%	$6.36
06/05/1996	06/28/1996	$0.039	2.79%	2.84%	$5.53
03/06/1996	03/29/1996	$0.039	2.72%	2.79%	$5.63
11/28/1995	12/15/1995	$0.036	2.42%	2.3%	$6.17
09/08/1995	09/29/1995	$0.037	2.55%	2.44%	$6.09
06/06/1995	06/30/1995	$0.037	3.06%	3.06%	$4.86
03/02/1995	03/31/1995	$0.037	3.17%	3.14%	$4.74
11/25/1994	12/15/1994	$0.035	3.3%	3.28%	$4.28
09/07/1994	09/30/1994	$0.035	2.9%	3.22%	$4.37
05/27/1994	06/30/1994	$0.035	3.02%	3.06%	$4.59
03/02/1994	03/31/1994	$0.031	2.66%	2.84%	$4.37
11/29/1993	12/17/1993	$0.020	1.94%	1.84%	$4.30
09/07/1993	09/30/1993	$0.031	2.84%	2.73%	$4.55
06/08/1993	06/30/1993	$0.031	3.07%	3.02%	$4.11
03/02/1993	03/31/1993	$0.028	2.36%	2.33%	$4.73
11/30/1992	12/18/1992	$0.028	2.59%	2.49%	$4.43
09/21/1992	09/30/1992	$0.028	2.94%	2.94%	$3.75
06/01/1992	06/30/1992	$0.028	2.98%	3.09%	$3.57
02/18/1992	03/31/1992	$0.026	2.99%	2.87%	$3.65
12/02/1991	12/20/1991	$0.026	3.42%	3.56%	$2.94
09/03/1991	09/30/1991	$0.026	3.21%	3.19%	$3.28
06/06/1991	06/28/1991	$0.026	3.75%	3.66%	$2.86
02/19/1991	03/29/1991	$0.025	4.1%	0%	$0.00
12/04/1990	12/31/1990	$0.025	4.51%	4.39%	$2.26
09/04/1990	09/28/1990	$0.025	4.55%	5.06%	$1.96
06/07/1990	06/29/1990	$0.025	3.95%	4.22%	$2.35
02/20/1990	03/30/1990	$0.022	3.75%	3.74%	$2.36
12/05/1989	12/29/1989	$0.022	3.23%	3.38%	$2.61
09/05/1989	09/29/1989	$0.022	3.3%	3.25%	$2.71
06/08/1989	06/30/1989	$0.022	3.75%	3.75%	$2.35
02/21/1989	03/31/1989	$0.021	4.07%	3.88%	$2.13
12/06/1988	12/30/1988	$0.021	4.13%	4.05%	$2.04
09/06/1988	09/30/1988	$0.021	4.2%	4.13%	$2.00
06/06/1988	06/30/1988	$0.021	4.59%	4.62%	$1.79
02/26/1988	03/31/1988	$0.019	4.95%	4.71%	$1.64
12/07/1987	12/31/1987	$0.016	4.85%	4.35%	$1.46
09/04/1987	09/30/1987	$0.016	3.45%	3.45%	$1.84
06/08/1987	06/30/1987	$0.016	3.71%	3.71%	$1.71
03/11/1987	03/31/1987	$0.015	3.29%	3.42%	$1.79
12/08/1986	12/10/1986	$0.019	2.94%	4.38%	$1.70
09/08/1986	09/10/1986	$0.019	4.16%	4.23%	$1.76
06/09/1986	06/11/1986	$0.019	3.9%	3.94%	$1.89
02/24/1986	02/26/1986	$0.018	4.27%	4.12%	$1.74
12/02/1985	12/04/1985	$0.011	3.02%	3%	$1.52
09/09/1985	09/11/1985	$0.011	3.25%	3.23%	$1.41
06/07/1985	06/10/1985	$0.011	3.25%	3.28%	$1.39
02/25/1985	02/27/1985	$0.011	2.44%	3.61%	$1.22

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for CBSH

Based on past 10-year performance, here are CBSH growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +6.54%
Dividend CAGR of +5.06%

Using CBSH CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	CBSH (DRIP)	CBSH - No DRIP
Current Price	$55.71	$55.71
Start Shares	179.50	179.50
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	216.01	179.50
Dividends Payment	$0.45	$0.45
Annual Dividends	$389	$324
Yield on cost	3.89%	3.24%
Share Price	$104.99	$104.99
Total Dividends	$2,757	$2,491
Final Value	$22,679	$21,337

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - CBSH

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on CBSH's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Combined 55% Lifetime Discount

Company Info

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) had its IPO on 1980-03-17, and is traded on NASDAQ stock exchange.

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. functions as the parent organization for Commerce Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of financial products and services. These offerings span retail banking, mortgage services, corporate finance, investment solutions, trust administration, and asset management, catering to both individuals and businesses across the United States. Its operational structure is divided into three principal divisions: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth Management. The Consumer division focuses on individual clients, providing essential banking services such as deposit accounts and a diverse range of personal loans. These include financing for automobiles, motorcycles, marine vehicles, tractor/trailers, recreational vehicles, fixed-rate and revolving home equity loans, and other personal credit products. This segment also facilitates patient healthcare funding, real estate loans, various indirect consumer financing options, personalized mortgage banking, installment lending, and consumer debit and credit cards. The Commercial segment offers robust support to businesses and institutional clients through corporate lending, equipment leasing, international banking, merchant and commercial card services, and secure securities safekeeping with bond accounting. It also manages specific business products, government deposit accounts, and extensive commercial cash management solutions. Additionally, this segment trades fixed-income securities to correspondent banks, corporate entities, public institutions, municipalities, and individual investors. Within the Wealth Management division, the company delivers traditional trust and estate planning, expert advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, brokerage services, and exclusive private banking accounts. Beyond these core segments, Commerce Bancshares further offers private equity investment opportunities, securities brokerage, insurance agency functions, specialized lending, and additional leasing services. It also ensures convenient access to banking through its online and mobile platforms. The company maintains a significant physical presence with 287 branch locations distributed across Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, complemented by several dedicated commercial offices. Established in 1865, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

CBSH website: https://www.commercebank.com

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DCF Model — CBSH

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $55.71

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Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →