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FWRG | NASDAQ

$11.83 -$0.21 | -1.74%

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|2026-10-14

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $730.06M

Trailing PE: 40.8x

FWD PE *: 57.6x

Payout Ratio (TTM): —

52-Week Range: $9.88 - $18.82

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

5 Year FWRG Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): -46.5% (-11.77% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): -46.5% (-11.77% CAGR)

Share Price: -46.5% (-11.77% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): —

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $5,346

Total Return $ (with DRIP): -$4,654

FWRG Total Return

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

FWRG Price Chart

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

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FWRG Financials: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

FWRG - Revenue

FWRG Revenue CAGR:1Y: 15.20%2Y: 18.73%5Y: 17.64%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

FWRG EPS CAGR:1Y: 19.05%2Y: -28.80%5Y: 24.08%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Net Income

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FWRG Net Income CAGR:1Y: 11.06%2Y: -30.77%5Y: 24.47%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - EBITDA

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FWRG EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 18.78%2Y: 17.59%5Y: 14.28%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Free Cash Flow

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FWRG Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Free Cash Flow / Share

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FWRG Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Operating Income

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FWRG Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 17.23%2Y: 16.53%5Y: 3.69%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Gross Profit

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FWRG Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 15.85%2Y: 15.70%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Shares Outstanding

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FWRG Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: -0.45%2Y: 0.36%5Y: 1.57%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Share Buybacks

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FWRG Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Stock-Based Comp

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FWRG Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 32.51%2Y: 33.45%5Y: 53.77%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Expenses

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FWRG Expenses CAGR:1Y: -2.29%2Y: 17.95%5Y: 38.67%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Revenue vs Net Income

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FWRG - EPS vs FCF / Share

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FWRG - EPS vs PE Ratio

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FWRG - FCF vs FCF / Share

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FWRG - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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FWRG - Cash & Debt

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FWRG - Revenue by Segment

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FWRG Revenue CAGR:1Y: 15.20%2Y: 18.73%5Y: 17.64%10Y: 0.00%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

FWRG - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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FWRG Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 15.20%2Y: 18.73%5Y: 17.64%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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FWRG Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 19.05%2Y: -28.80%5Y: 24.08%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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FWRG Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 11.06%2Y: -30.77%5Y: 24.47%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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FWRG Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 18.78%2Y: 17.59%5Y: 14.28%10Y: 0.00%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

FWRG - Net Profit Margin

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FWRG Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -2.94%2Y: -41.67%5Y: 5.71%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Gross Profit Margin

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FWRG Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 295.82%2Y: 93.30%5Y: 29.94%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Price to Earnings

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FWRG Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: -30.26%2Y: 29.56%5Y: -27.59%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Price To Sales Ratio

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FWRG Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: -29.04%2Y: -22.42%5Y: -22.57%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Return on Capital Employed

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FWRG Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: 326.89%2Y: 109.81%5Y: 22.36%10Y: 0.00%

FWRG - Return on Invested Capital

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FWRG Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: 621.47%2Y: 76.21%5Y: 34.93%10Y: 0.00%

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for FWRG

Based on past 5-year performance, here are FWRG growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of -11.77%
Dividend CAGR of +0%

Using FWRG CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	FWRG (DRIP)	FWRG - No DRIP
Current Price	$11.83	$11.83
Start Shares	845.31	845.31
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	845.31	845.31
Dividends Payment	$0.00	$0.00
Annual Dividends	$0	$0
Yield on cost	0.00%	0.00%
Share Price	$3.38	$11.83
Total Dividends	$0	$0
Final Value	$2,858	$10,000

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - FWRG

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on FWRG's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 5 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) had its IPO on 2021-10-01, and is traded on NASDAQ stock exchange.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. oversees and licenses restaurant operations under the First Watch brand. As of March 23, 2022, its extensive presence included 341 company-owned eateries and 94 franchised outlets, operating across 28 U.S. states. The enterprise, established in 1983 with its main office in Bradenton, Florida, previously traded as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. before changing its designation to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019.

FWRG website: https://www.firstwatch.com

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DCF Model — FWRG

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $11.83

—

Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →

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