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GO | NASDAQ

$11.86 -$0.10 | -0.84%

TREND SIGNAL: Signal available — unlock to view

|2026-10-08

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $1.19B

Trailing PE: N/A

FWD PE *: 19.8x

Payout Ratio (TTM): —

52-Week Range: $5.66 - $15.93

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

7.3 Year GO Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): -58.4% (-11.32% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): -58.4% (-11.32% CAGR)

Share Price: -58.4% (-11.32% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): —

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $4,160

Total Return $ (with DRIP): -$5,840

GO Total Return

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

GO Price Chart

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

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GO Financials: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

GO - Revenue

GO Revenue CAGR:1Y: 1.10%2Y: 3.75%5Y: 9.18%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

GO EPS CAGR:1Y: 20.00%2Y: -50.00%5Y: -18.80%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Net Income

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GO Net Income CAGR:1Y: 13.40%2Y: -51.76%5Y: -19.97%10Y: 0.00%

GO - EBITDA

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GO EBITDA CAGR:1Y: -14.91%2Y: 9.02%5Y: 1.53%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Free Cash Flow

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GO Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: -83.49%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -45.91%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Free Cash Flow / Share

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GO Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: -90.42%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -46.25%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Operating Income

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GO Operating Income CAGR:1Y: -34.11%2Y: -37.44%5Y: -9.62%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Gross Profit

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GO Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 0.01%2Y: 2.27%5Y: 8.75%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Shares Outstanding

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GO Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: 1.33%2Y: 0.42%5Y: 0.12%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Share Buybacks

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GO Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Stock-Based Comp

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GO Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 92.24%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 14.65%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Expenses

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GO Expenses CAGR:1Y: -29.49%2Y: -13.38%5Y: 9.51%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Revenue vs Net Income

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GO - EPS vs FCF / Share

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GO - EPS vs PE Ratio

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GO - FCF vs FCF / Share

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GO - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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GO - Cash & Debt

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GO - Revenue by Segment

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GO Revenue CAGR:1Y: 1.10%2Y: 3.75%5Y: 9.18%10Y: 0.00%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

GO - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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GO Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 1.10%2Y: 3.75%5Y: 9.18%10Y: 0.00%

GO - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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GO Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 20.00%2Y: -50.00%5Y: -18.80%10Y: 0.00%

GO - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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GO Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 13.40%2Y: -51.76%5Y: -19.97%10Y: 0.00%

GO - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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GO Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: -14.91%2Y: 9.02%5Y: 1.53%10Y: 0.00%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

GO - Net Profit Margin

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GO Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 11.90%2Y: -53.57%5Y: -26.76%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Gross Profit Margin

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GO Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -1.08%2Y: -1.42%5Y: -0.39%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Price to Earnings

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GO Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: -31.45%2Y: 55.21%5Y: 7.66%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Price To Sales Ratio

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GO Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: -17.86%2Y: -25.84%5Y: -20.22%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Return on Capital Employed

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GO Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: -48.75%2Y: -35.19%5Y: -11.11%10Y: 0.00%

GO - Return on Invested Capital

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GO Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: -60.95%2Y: -39.73%5Y: -23.41%10Y: 0.00%

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for GO

Based on past 7.3-year performance, here are GO growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of -11.32%
Dividend CAGR of +0%

Using GO CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	GO (DRIP)	GO - No DRIP
Current Price	$11.86	$11.86
Start Shares	843.17	843.17
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	843.17	843.17
Dividends Payment	$0.00	$0.00
Annual Dividends	$0	$0
Yield on cost	0.00%	0.00%
Share Price	$3.57	$11.86
Total Dividends	$0	$0
Final Value	$3,007	$10,000

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - GO

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on GO's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 7.3 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Combined 55% Lifetime Discount

Company Info

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) had its IPO on 2019-06-20, and is traded on NASDAQ stock exchange.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. oversees a network of individually managed retail locations throughout the United States. These stores offer an extensive selection of products, encompassing fresh produce, dairy and deli items, floral arrangements, and various meats and seafood, as well as conventional groceries, diverse general merchandise, health and beauty care essentials, frozen foods, and both beer and wine. As of August 9, 2022, the company operated 425 stores across eight states. Founded in 1946, its principal office is situated in Emeryville, California.

GO website: https://www.groceryoutlet.com

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DCF Model — GO

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $11.86

—

Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →