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UPST | NASDAQ

$22.95 -$0.04 | -0.17%

SIGNAL:

|2026-08-31 |F&G 18 |RSI 30.2

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $2.22B

Trailing PE: 44.9x

FWD PE *: 16.7x

Payout Ratio (TTM): —

52-Week Range: $22.56 - $55.22

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

5.8 Year UPST Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): -22.1% (-4.22% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): -22.1% (-4.22% CAGR)

Share Price: -22.1% (-4.22% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): —

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $7,788

Total Return $ (with DRIP): -$2,212

UPST Total Return

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

UPST Price Chart

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

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UPST Fundamentals: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

UPST - Revenue

UPST Revenue CAGR:1Y: -2.93%2Y: 36.00%5Y: 5.65%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

UPST EPS CAGR:1Y: 193.58%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -16.32%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Net Income

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UPST Net Income CAGR:1Y: 194.97%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -15.00%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - EBITDA

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UPST EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 78.75%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -11.69%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Free Cash Flow

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UPST Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Free Cash Flow / Share

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UPST Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Operating Income

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UPST Operating Income CAGR:1Y: -19.70%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -34.01%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Gross Profit

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UPST Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: -98.23%2Y: -81.14%5Y: -52.80%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Shares Outstanding

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UPST Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: 6.68%2Y: 11.39%5Y: 2.79%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Share Buybacks

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UPST Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 235.33%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Stock-Based Comp

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UPST Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 25.22%2Y: 14.01%5Y: 15.98%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Expenses

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UPST Expenses CAGR:1Y: -49.98%2Y: -3.14%5Y: 4.77%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Revenue vs Net Income

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UPST - EPS vs FCF / Share

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UPST - EPS vs PE Ratio

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UPST - FCF vs FCF / Share

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UPST - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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UPST - Cash & Debt

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UPST - Revenue by Segment

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UPST Revenue CAGR:1Y: -2.93%2Y: 36.00%5Y: 5.65%10Y: 0.00%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

UPST - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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UPST Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: -2.93%2Y: 36.00%5Y: 5.65%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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UPST Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 193.58%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -16.32%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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UPST Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 194.97%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -15.00%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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UPST Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 78.75%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -11.69%10Y: 0.00%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

UPST - Net Profit Margin

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UPST Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 203.30%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -19.55%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Gross Profit Margin

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UPST Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -98.18%2Y: -86.11%5Y: -55.30%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Price to Earnings

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UPST Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: -81.09%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -3.95%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Price To Sales Ratio

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UPST Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: -42.95%2Y: -4.43%5Y: -26.16%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Return on Capital Employed

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UPST Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: -47.49%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -49.24%10Y: 0.00%

UPST - Return on Invested Capital

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UPST Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: -41.22%2Y: 0.00%5Y: -49.06%10Y: 0.00%

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for UPST

Based on past 5.8-year performance, here are UPST growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of -4.22%
Dividend CAGR of +0%

Using UPST CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	UPST (DRIP)	UPST - No DRIP
Current Price	$22.95	$22.95
Start Shares	435.73	435.73
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	435.73	435.73
Dividends Payment	$0.00	$0.00
Annual Dividends	$0	$0
Yield on cost	0.00%	0.00%
Share Price	$14.91	$22.95
Total Dividends	$0	$0
Final Value	$6,498	$10,000

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - UPST

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on UPST's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 5.8 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) had its IPO on 2020-12-16, and is traded on NASDAQ stock exchange.

Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

UPST website: https://www.upstart.com

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DCF Model — UPST

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $22.95

—

Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →