ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock: Dividends & Earnings

Company Overview:

Market Cap: $15.65B

Trailing PE: 11x

FWD PE *: 9.9x

Payout Ratio (TTM): 35.9%

52-Week Range: $18.63 - $26.20

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year ZTO Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 63.1% (5.02% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 62.6% (4.98% CAGR)

Share Price: 40.5% (3.46% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): 3.11%

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $16,314

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $6,314

Dividend Increase: 45.8% (4.80% CAGR)

Dividend Yield (FWD): 1.90% ($0.39)

ZTO 10-yr Total Return ($10K invested)

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

ZTO Share Price

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

ZTO Price CAGR:1Y: 7.00%2Y: -2.06%5Y: -6.76%10Y: 3.46%

ZTO Dividend Charts

ZTO - Dividends

ZTO Dividend CAGR:1Y: 30.00%2Y: 5.56%5Y: 1.06%10Y: 7.46%

ZTO - Dividend Payout Ratio

ZTO Dividend Payout Ratio CAGR:1Y: -37.10%2Y: -30.44%5Y: -8.61%10Y: 0.00%

ZTO - Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio

ZTO Dividend to FCF Ratio CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

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ZTO - Chart 1

ZTO - Chart 2

ZTO - Chart 3

ZTO Financials: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

ZTO reports in CNY. These charts show U.S. dollars, converted from CNY at each quarter’s closing rate (quarters that are still estimates use the latest rate). Click “Show CNY” to see the numbers as filed.

RevenueShow CNY

ZTO Revenue CAGR:1Y: 29.70%2Y: 20.47%5Y: 13.56%10Y: 20.07%

Earnings Per Share (EPS)Show CNY

ZTO EPS CAGR:1Y: 69.10%2Y: 14.34%5Y: 18.29%10Y: 19.43%

Net IncomeShow CNY

ZTO Net Income CAGR:1Y: 67.46%2Y: 12.28%5Y: 17.75%10Y: 21.55%

EBITDAShow CNY

ZTO EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 2.07%2Y: 3.33%5Y: 10.40%10Y: 18.36%

Free Cash FlowShow CNY

ZTO Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 52.18%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 20.28%

Free Cash Flow / ShareShow CNY

ZTO Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Operating IncomeShow CNY

ZTO Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 39.74%2Y: 4.46%5Y: 16.45%10Y: 18.21%

Gross ProfitShow CNY

ZTO Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 33.72%2Y: 5.04%5Y: 16.22%10Y: 16.00%

Shares Outstanding

ZTO Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: -2.05%2Y: -1.48%5Y: -0.29%10Y: 2.80%

Share BuybacksShow CNY

ZTO Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Stock-Based CompShow CNY

ZTO Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

ExpensesShow CNY

ZTO Expenses CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Revenue vs Net IncomeShow CNY

EPS vs FCF / ShareShow CNY

EPS vs PE RatioShow CNY

FCF vs FCF / ShareShow CNY

FCF vs Stock Based CompShow CNY

Cash & DebtShow CNY

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

REVENUE: Actual + EstimatesShow CNY

ZTO Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 29.70%2Y: 20.47%5Y: 13.56%10Y: 20.07%

EPS: Actual + EstimatesShow CNY

ZTO Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 69.10%2Y: 14.34%5Y: 18.29%10Y: 19.43%

NET INCOME: Actual + EstimatesShow CNY

ZTO Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 67.46%2Y: 12.28%5Y: 17.75%10Y: 21.55%

EBITDA: Actual + EstimatesShow CNY

ZTO Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 2.07%2Y: 3.33%5Y: 10.40%10Y: 18.36%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

Net Profit Margin

ZTO Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 28.02%2Y: -7.20%5Y: 3.52%10Y: 1.15%

Gross Profit Margin

ZTO Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 3.09%2Y: -12.81%5Y: 2.35%10Y: -3.38%

Price to Earnings

ZTO Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: -28.02%2Y: -10.07%5Y: -21.36%10Y: -18.64%

Price To Sales Ratio

ZTO Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: -7.98%2Y: -16.56%5Y: -18.60%10Y: -17.71%

Return on Capital Employed

ZTO Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: 13.10%2Y: -4.70%5Y: 7.75%10Y: -4.39%

Return on Invested Capital

ZTO Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: 49.02%2Y: 2.34%5Y: 8.45%10Y: -2.95%

ZTO Dividends Info:

Annual Dividend: $0.39

Forward Yield: 1.9%

Ex-Dividend Date: 2026-04-08

Lifetime Dividends / Share: $3.60

Dividend Safety RatingUnlock Full ZTO dividend report »

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for ZTO

Based on past 10-year performance, here are ZTO growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +3.46%
Dividend CAGR of +9.37%

Using ZTO CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	ZTO (DRIP)	ZTO - No DRIP
Current Price	$20.48	$20.48
Start Shares	488.28	488.28
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	589.65	488.28
Dividends Payment	$0.58	$0.58
Annual Dividends	$341	$283
Yield on cost	3.41%	2.83%
Share Price	$28.77	$28.77
Total Dividends	$2,443	$2,230
Final Value	$16,963	$16,276

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - ZTO

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on ZTO's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

Is ZTO's dividend safe, and what is ZTO worth?

Pro adds ZTO's Dividend Safety Rating, its DCF fair value and the Trend Signal to this page and opens the 26 blurred charts above.

Show ZTO's rating and fair value

Company Info

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) had its IPO on 2016-10-27, and is traded on NYSE stock exchange.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a leading provider of expedited parcel delivery and integrated logistics services throughout the People's Republic of China. The company facilitates shipments for a diverse clientele, including online retailers, traditional businesses, and various other entities requiring swift courier solutions. By the end of 2021, specifically December 31, its operations were supported by a substantial vehicle network comprising approximately 10,900 trucks. The firm was established in 2002 and maintains its primary corporate offices in Shanghai, China.

ZTO website: https://www.zto.com

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DCF Model — ZTO

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

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vs current price $20.48

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Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

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grows for the next years

Then mature

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every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

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÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ZTO | NYSE