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Bird Construction Inc. BIRDF | OTC

$58.36 $0.99 | 1.73%

SIGNAL:

|2026-09-30 |F&G 72 |RSI 65.6

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $3.18B

Trailing PE: 54x

FWD PE *: 17.9x

Payout Ratio (TTM): 78.3%

52-Week Range: $17.65 - $65.21

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year BIRDF Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 926% (26.22% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 617% (21.77% CAGR)

Share Price: 576% (21.06% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): 10.44%

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $102,610

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $92,610

Dividend Increase: 101.9% (7.60% CAGR)

Dividend Yield (FWD): 1.02% ($0.59)

BIRDF 10-yr Total Return ($10K invested)

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

BIRDF Share Price

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

BIRDF Price CAGR:1Y: 169.56%2Y: 81.89%5Y: 49.59%10Y: 21.06%

BIRDF Dividend Charts

BIRDF - Dividends

BIRDF Dividend CAGR:1Y: -1.08%2Y: -0.54%5Y: 14.62%10Y: -1.91%

BIRDF - Dividend Payout Ratio

BIRDF Dividend Payout Ratio CAGR:1Y: -33.02%2Y: 4.35%5Y: 0.25%10Y: -15.53%

BIRDF - Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio

BIRDF Dividend to FCF Ratio CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

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BIRDF Fundamentals: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

BIRDF - Revenue

BIRDF Revenue CAGR:1Y: 22.63%2Y: 9.28%5Y: 13.40%10Y: 9.70%

BIRDF - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

BIRDF EPS CAGR:1Y: 48.65%2Y: 17.26%5Y: 16.17%10Y: 19.84%

BIRDF - Net Income

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BIRDF Net Income CAGR:1Y: 49.32%2Y: 18.94%5Y: 17.30%10Y: 22.79%

BIRDF - EBITDA

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BIRDF EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 31.17%2Y: 29.41%5Y: 21.27%10Y: 24.23%

BIRDF - Free Cash Flow

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BIRDF Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

BIRDF - Free Cash Flow / Share

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BIRDF Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

BIRDF - Operating Income

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BIRDF Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 49.03%2Y: 29.33%5Y: 21.42%10Y: 27.10%

BIRDF - Gross Profit

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BIRDF Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 21.83%2Y: 21.09%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

BIRDF - Shares Outstanding

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BIRDF Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: 0.02%2Y: 1.39%5Y: 0.87%10Y: 2.68%

BIRDF - Share Buybacks

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BIRDF Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

BIRDF - Stock-Based Comp

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BIRDF Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 177.75%2Y: 8.15%5Y: 14.15%10Y: 12.22%

BIRDF - Expenses

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BIRDF Expenses CAGR:1Y: -19.68%2Y: 0.71%5Y: 29.49%10Y: 20.81%

BIRDF - Revenue vs Net Income

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BIRDF - EPS vs FCF / Share

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BIRDF - EPS vs PE Ratio

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BIRDF - FCF vs FCF / Share

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BIRDF - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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BIRDF - Cash & Debt

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Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

BIRDF - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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BIRDF Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 22.63%2Y: 9.28%5Y: 13.40%10Y: 9.70%

BIRDF - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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BIRDF Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 48.65%2Y: 17.26%5Y: 16.17%10Y: 19.84%

BIRDF - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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BIRDF Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 49.32%2Y: 18.94%5Y: 17.30%10Y: 22.79%

BIRDF - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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BIRDF Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 31.17%2Y: 29.41%5Y: 21.27%10Y: 24.23%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

BIRDF - Net Profit Margin

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BIRDF Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 21.85%2Y: 8.80%5Y: 3.43%10Y: 11.92%

BIRDF - Gross Profit Margin

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BIRDF Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -11.24%2Y: 7.26%5Y: 1.30%10Y: 7.48%

BIRDF - Price to Earnings

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BIRDF Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: 51.25%2Y: 32.95%5Y: 28.37%10Y: -2.15%

BIRDF - Price To Sales Ratio

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BIRDF Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: 83.39%2Y: 45.16%5Y: 32.96%10Y: 9.59%

BIRDF - Return on Capital Employed

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BIRDF Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: 117.92%2Y: 85.16%5Y: 11.57%10Y: 14.52%

BIRDF - Return on Invested Capital

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BIRDF Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: 151.44%2Y: 93.19%5Y: 9.06%10Y: 13.55%

BIRDF Dividends Info:

Annual Dividend: $0.593544

Forward Yield: 1.02%

Ex-Dividend Date: 2026-10-30

Lifetime Dividends / Share: $7.28

BIRDF Dividend History: Dates, Payments & Yield list

Below is a schedule of all BIRDF dividend payments, ex-dates, share price on the day of the payment as well as the annualized yield & forward yield

Ex-Date	Payment Date	Amount	Yield	Forward Yield	Price on Ex-Date
10/30/2026	11/20/2026	$0.049	1.05%	0%	$0.00
09/29/2026	10/20/2026	$0.049	1.05%	0%	$0.00
08/31/2026	09/02/2026	$0.050	1.25%	1.26%	$47.59
07/31/2026	08/03/2026	$0.050	1.26%	1.25%	$47.84
06/30/2026	07/02/2026	$0.049	1.3%	1.34%	$44.00
05/29/2026	06/01/2026	$0.051	1.44%	1.5%	$40.75
04/30/2026	05/04/2026	$0.051	1.68%	1.53%	$40.00
03/31/2026	04/02/2026	$0.050	2.1%	2.02%	$29.64
02/27/2026	03/02/2026	$0.051	2.63%	2.58%	$23.73
01/30/2026	02/02/2026	$0.052	2.72%	2.81%	$22.20
12/31/2025	01/20/2026	$0.051	2.94%	2.85%	$21.48
11/28/2025	12/19/2025	$0.050	3.18%	2.86%	$21.05
10/31/2025	11/20/2025	$0.050	2.82%	3.31%	$18.12
09/30/2025	10/20/2025	$0.050	2.88%	0%	$0.00
09/29/2025	10/20/2025	$0.050	2.87%	2.85%	$21.15
08/29/2025	09/19/2025	$0.051	3.69%	2.98%	$20.52
07/31/2025	08/04/2025	$0.051	2.93%	3.08%	$19.85
06/30/2025	07/02/2025	$0.051	2.91%	2.91%	$21.03
05/30/2025	06/02/2025	$0.051	3.1%	3.14%	$19.48
04/30/2025	05/02/2025	$0.051	3.99%	3.66%	$16.72
03/31/2025	04/02/2025	$0.049	3.91%	3.85%	$15.28
02/28/2025	03/03/2025	$0.048	3.8%	3.87%	$14.90
01/31/2025	02/03/2025	$0.048	3.49%	3.6%	$16.00
12/31/2024	01/02/2025	$0.049	3.25%	3.23%	$18.22
11/29/2024	12/02/2024	$0.050	2.72%	2.76%	$21.77
10/31/2024	11/20/2024	$0.034	1.85%	1.94%	$20.73
09/27/2024	10/18/2024	$0.035	2.36%	1.9%	$21.81
08/30/2024	09/20/2024	$0.035	2.46%	2.51%	$16.57
07/31/2024	08/20/2024	$0.034	2.17%	2.28%	$17.81
06/28/2024	07/19/2024	$0.034	2.07%	2.22%	$18.42
05/31/2024	06/20/2024	$0.034	2.64%	2.16%	$19.00
04/29/2024	05/17/2024	$0.034	2.89%	2.58%	$15.87
03/27/2024	04/19/2024	$0.034	3%	3.05%	$13.55
02/28/2024	03/20/2024	$0.026	2.51%	2.33%	$13.58
01/30/2024	02/20/2024	$0.027	2.79%	2.61%	$12.30
12/28/2023	01/19/2024	$0.027	2.93%	3.01%	$10.77
11/29/2023	12/20/2023	$0.026	3.62%	2.87%	$11.02
10/30/2023	11/20/2023	$0.026	4.06%	3.51%	$8.85
09/28/2023	10/20/2023	$0.027	4.16%	4.23%	$7.52
08/30/2023	09/20/2023	$0.026	3.98%	3.94%	$8.05
07/28/2023	08/18/2023	$0.027	4.63%	4.24%	$7.64
06/29/2023	07/20/2023	$0.027	5.15%	4.77%	$6.79
05/30/2023	06/20/2023	$0.026	5.09%	4.96%	$6.36
04/27/2023	05/19/2023	$0.026	4.81%	4.94%	$6.39
03/30/2023	04/20/2023	$0.026	4.7%	4.78%	$6.64
02/27/2023	03/20/2023	$0.024	4.28%	4.27%	$6.72
01/30/2023	02/17/2023	$0.024	4.5%	4.33%	$6.72
12/29/2022	01/20/2023	$0.024	4.93%	4.43%	$6.50
11/29/2022	12/20/2022	$0.024	5.48%	4.91%	$5.85
10/28/2022	11/18/2022	$0.024	6.28%	5.52%	$5.19
09/28/2022	10/20/2022	$0.024	6.51%	6.63%	$4.32
08/30/2022	09/20/2022	$0.025	5.6%	6.27%	$4.75
07/28/2022	08/19/2022	$0.025	5.43%	5.53%	$5.50
06/29/2022	07/20/2022	$0.025	5.11%	5.47%	$5.53
05/31/2022	06/20/2022	$0.026	4.71%	4.93%	$6.25
04/28/2022	05/20/2022	$0.025	4.5%	4.89%	$6.23
03/30/2022	04/20/2022	$0.026	4.23%	4.28%	$7.29
02/25/2022	03/18/2022	$0.025	4.1%	4.05%	$7.40
01/28/2022	02/18/2022	$0.026	4.24%	4.29%	$7.28
12/30/2021	01/20/2022	$0.025	3.97%	3.97%	$7.71
11/29/2021	12/20/2021	$0.025	3.73%	4.23%	$7.09
10/28/2021	11/19/2021	$0.026	3.84%	3.8%	$8.31
09/28/2021	10/20/2021	$0.026	3.91%	3.66%	$8.39
08/30/2021	09/20/2021	$0.026	4.02%	4.01%	$7.72
07/29/2021	08/20/2021	$0.026	4.51%	4.46%	$7.03
06/29/2021	07/20/2021	$0.026	4.5%	4.83%	$6.52
05/28/2021	06/18/2021	$0.027	4.03%	4.59%	$7.03
04/29/2021	05/20/2021	$0.026	4.21%	3.95%	$8.03
03/30/2021	04/20/2021	$0.026	4.49%	4.42%	$6.98
02/25/2021	03/19/2021	$0.026	4.54%	4.43%	$7.04
01/28/2021	02/19/2021	$0.025	4.61%	4.3%	$7.08
12/30/2020	01/20/2021	$0.025	4.99%	4.47%	$6.84
11/27/2020	12/18/2020	$0.025	5.41%	4.69%	$6.41
10/29/2020	11/20/2020	$0.024	6.14%	5.52%	$5.29
09/29/2020	10/20/2020	$0.024	6.07%	5.62%	$5.18
08/28/2020	09/18/2020	$0.025	5.76%	5.88%	$5.06
07/30/2020	08/20/2020	$0.024	5.93%	5.75%	$5.05
06/29/2020	07/20/2020	$0.024	6.54%	6.23%	$4.57
05/28/2020	06/19/2020	$0.024	6.61%	6.24%	$4.54
04/29/2020	05/20/2020	$0.023	7.89%	7.89%	$3.55
03/30/2020	04/20/2020	$0.023	8.34%	7.54%	$3.65
02/27/2020	03/20/2020	$0.024	6.46%	8.37%	$3.49
01/30/2020	02/20/2020	$0.025	5.72%	5.76%	$5.12
12/30/2019	01/20/2020	$0.025	5.63%	5.51%	$5.42
11/29/2019	12/20/2019	$0.024	5.87%	5.82%	$5.04
10/30/2019	11/20/2019	$0.025	6.43%	5.97%	$4.96
09/27/2019	10/18/2019	$0.024	6.65%	6.65%	$4.33
08/29/2019	09/20/2019	$0.024	7.52%	6.52%	$4.50
07/30/2019	08/20/2019	$0.025	7.06%	7.75%	$3.82
06/27/2019	07/19/2019	$0.025	6.96%	7%	$4.25
05/30/2019	06/20/2019	$0.024	6.91%	6.7%	$4.31
04/29/2019	05/17/2019	$0.024	4.97%	7.02%	$4.13
03/28/2019	04/18/2019	$0.033	6.6%	6.55%	$5.95
02/27/2019	03/20/2019	$0.025	5.89%	5.39%	$5.51
01/30/2019	02/20/2019	$0.024	6.06%	5.77%	$4.99
12/28/2018	01/18/2019	$0.024	7.43%	6.68%	$4.28
11/29/2018	12/20/2018	$0.024	5.93%	7.29%	$4.03
10/30/2018	11/20/2018	$0.033	7.82%	7.53%	$5.18
09/27/2018	10/19/2018	$0.025	5.26%	4.83%	$6.18
08/30/2018	09/20/2018	$0.025	5.09%	5.3%	$5.67
07/30/2018	08/20/2018	$0.025	5.19%	5.02%	$5.98
06/28/2018	07/20/2018	$0.024	5.34%	5.11%	$5.64
05/30/2018	06/20/2018	$0.025	5.2%	5.06%	$5.99
04/27/2018	05/18/2018	$0.025	4.62%	5.22%	$5.81
03/28/2018	04/20/2018	$0.025	4.63%	4.48%	$6.75
02/27/2018	03/20/2018	$0.026	4.17%	4.6%	$6.78
01/30/2018	02/20/2018	$0.026	4.08%	4.22%	$7.49
12/28/2017	01/19/2018	$0.026	3.97%	3.89%	$7.96
11/29/2017	12/20/2017	$0.025	3.97%	3.99%	$7.61
10/30/2017	11/20/2017	$0.025	4.01%	3.99%	$7.61
09/28/2017	10/20/2017	$0.026	3.92%	4.06%	$7.71
08/29/2017	09/20/2017	$0.026	4.49%	3.99%	$7.82
07/27/2017	08/18/2017	$0.026	4.56%	4.49%	$6.94
06/28/2017	07/20/2017	$0.025	4.78%	4.35%	$6.86
05/26/2017	06/20/2017	$0.033	5.79%	6.08%	$6.41
04/26/2017	05/19/2017	$0.024	3.95%	4.27%	$6.73
03/29/2017	04/20/2017	$0.024	3.87%	3.93%	$7.42
02/24/2017	03/20/2017	$0.025	4.31%	4.14%	$7.19
01/27/2017	02/17/2017	$0.025	4.34%	4.16%	$7.14
01/29/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.060	5.18%	21.75%	$3.31
02/26/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.060	5.49%	21.75%	$3.31
03/26/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.063	5.81%	22.95%	$3.31
04/26/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.063	6.02%	22.95%	$3.31
05/29/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.063	6.56%	22.95%	$3.31
06/26/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.063	6.17%	22.95%	$3.31
07/29/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.063	6.17%	22.95%	$3.31
08/28/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.063	7.04%	22.95%	$3.31
09/26/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.063	6.16%	22.95%	$3.31
10/29/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.063	6.27%	22.95%	$3.31
11/26/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.063	6.46%	22.95%	$3.31
12/27/2013	11/30/-0001	$0.059	5.85%	21.39%	$3.31
01/29/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.057	5.82%	20.66%	$3.31
02/26/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.057	5.67%	20.66%	$3.31
03/27/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.057	5.45%	20.66%	$3.31
12/27/2012	11/30/-0001	$0.060	5.45%	21.75%	$3.31
11/28/2012	11/30/-0001	$0.060	5.22%	21.75%	$3.31
10/29/2012	11/30/-0001	$0.060	4.96%	21.75%	$3.31
12/29/2010	11/30/-0001	$0.017	0.54%	6.04%	$3.31
03/29/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	1.74%	19.94%	$3.31
04/27/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	5.03%	19.94%	$3.31
05/27/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	5.28%	19.94%	$3.31
06/28/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	5.68%	19.94%	$3.31
07/27/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	5.17%	19.94%	$3.31
08/29/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	6.08%	19.94%	$3.31
09/28/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	6.8%	19.94%	$3.31
10/27/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	5.9%	19.94%	$3.31
11/28/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	5.8%	19.94%	$3.31
12/28/2011	11/30/-0001	$0.055	5.8%	19.94%	$3.31
01/27/2012	11/30/-0001	$0.055	5.09%	19.94%	$3.31
02/27/2012	11/30/-0001	$0.055	5.09%	19.94%	$3.31
09/26/2012	11/30/-0001	$0.060	5.06%	21.75%	$3.31
11/26/2010	11/30/-0001	$0.017	0.61%	6.04%	$3.31
04/28/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.057	5.36%	20.66%	$3.31
05/28/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.058	5.48%	21.03%	$3.31
11/27/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.048	5.79%	17.4%	$3.31
12/29/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.046	5.8%	16.68%	$3.31
01/27/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.045	6.68%	16.31%	$3.31
02/25/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.046	6.2%	16.68%	$3.31
03/29/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.048	6.61%	17.4%	$3.31
04/27/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.050	6.41%	18.13%	$3.31
05/27/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.049	5.6%	17.76%	$3.31
06/28/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.048	5.74%	17.4%	$3.31
07/27/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.048	5.7%	17.4%	$3.31
08/29/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.049	6.81%	17.76%	$3.31
09/28/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.048	6.9%	17.4%	$3.31
10/27/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.047	6.69%	17.04%	$3.31
11/28/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.047	8.15%	17.04%	$3.31
12/28/2016	11/30/-0001	$0.047	8.42%	17.04%	$3.31
10/28/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.048	5.82%	17.4%	$3.31
09/28/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.047	6.01%	17.04%	$3.31
08/27/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.048	6.77%	17.4%	$3.31
06/26/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.059	5.63%	21.39%	$3.31
07/29/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.059	5.66%	21.39%	$3.31
08/27/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.058	5.08%	21.03%	$3.31
09/26/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.057	5.47%	20.66%	$3.31
10/29/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.057	5.7%	20.66%	$3.31
11/26/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.056	6.25%	20.3%	$3.31
12/29/2014	11/30/-0001	$0.054	6.25%	19.58%	$3.31
01/28/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.051	6.53%	18.49%	$3.31
02/25/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.051	6.18%	18.49%	$3.31
03/27/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.051	7.85%	18.49%	$3.31
04/28/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.052	6.85%	18.85%	$3.31
05/27/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.051	6.7%	18.49%	$3.31
06/26/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.051	6.86%	18.49%	$3.31
07/29/2015	11/30/-0001	$0.049	7.21%	17.76%	$3.31
05/27/2022	11/30/-0001	$0.033	5.96%	11.78%	$3.31

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for BIRDF

Based on past 10-year performance, here are BIRDF growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +21.06%
Dividend CAGR of +7.35%

Using BIRDF CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	BIRDF (DRIP)	BIRDF - No DRIP
Current Price	$58.36	$58.36
Start Shares	171.35	171.35
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	182.45	171.35
Dividends Payment	$0.10	$0.10
Annual Dividends	$220	$207
Yield on cost	2.20%	2.07%
Share Price	$394.66	$394.66
Total Dividends	$1,488	$1,429
Final Value	$72,007	$69,053

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - BIRDF

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on BIRDF's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

Bird Construction Inc. (BIRDF) had its IPO on 2008-06-24, and is traded on OTC stock exchange.

Bird Construction Inc., a prominent Canadian general contractor founded in Mississauga in 1920, specializes in a wide array of projects across the industrial, commercial, and institutional sectors. Its industrial portfolio encompasses the construction of manufacturing, processing, distribution, and warehousing facilities. The company also delivers extensive industrial services, including structural work, mechanical and piping installations, electrical and instrumentation systems (with off-site metal and modular fabrication capabilities), insulation, metal siding and cladding, ductwork, asbestos abatement, high-voltage testing and commissioning, and power line construction. In the realm of civil construction, Bird performs site preparation, earthworks, underground piping, foundations, and various concrete services, extending to mine support and hydroelectric infrastructure. Its civil infrastructure expertise covers building and upgrading roads, bridges, railways, and underground utilities. For institutional clients, the firm constructs and renovates healthcare facilities, post-secondary and K-12 educational institutions, recreational venues, correctional facilities, courthouses, government buildings, and senior living complexes. Commercial ventures involve the development and refurbishment of office buildings, shopping centers, large retail outlets, hotels, and mixed-use high-rise and mid-rise residential properties. Additionally, Bird Construction provides specialized electrical and related system solutions, encompassing infrastructure design and installation, data communications, security systems, and lifecycle services. The company serves a diverse client base across sectors such as oil and gas, liquefied natural gas, mining, renewables, water and wastewater, nuclear, general infrastructure, and residential.

BIRDF website: https://www.bird.ca

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DCF Model — BIRDF

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $58.36

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Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →