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Ecopetrol S.A. EC | NYSE

$16.51 -$0.19 | -1.14%

SIGNAL:

|2026-09-24 |F&G 41 |RSI 42.9

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $33.94B

Trailing PE: N/A

FWD PE *: 0x

Payout Ratio (TTM): 38.2%

52-Week Range: $8.57 - $18.38

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year EC Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 421.1% (17.95% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 233.0% (12.78% CAGR)

Share Price: 88.5% (6.54% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): 20.50%

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $52,113

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $42,113

Dividend Increase: -18.4% (-2.23% CAGR)

Dividend Yield (FWD): 3.93% ($0.65)

EC 10-yr Total Return ($10K invested)

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

EC Share Price

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

EC Price CAGR:1Y: 79.85%2Y: 35.97%5Y: 3.21%10Y: 6.68%

EC Dividend Charts

EC - Dividends

EC Dividend CAGR:1Y: 2.70%2Y: -18.79%5Y: -9.54%10Y: -1.85%

EC - Dividend Payout Ratio

EC Dividend Payout Ratio CAGR:1Y: -82.58%2Y: -49.50%5Y: 27.85%10Y: -3.28%

EC - Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio

EC Dividend to FCF Ratio CAGR:1Y: -27.01%2Y: 22.06%5Y: -4.20%10Y: 36.83%

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EC Fundamentals: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

EC - Revenue

EC Revenue CAGR:1Y: 25.21%2Y: 6.71%5Y: 13.82%10Y: 11.79%

EC - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EC EPS CAGR:1Y: 210.45%2Y: 29.06%5Y: 8.59%10Y: 37.72%

EC - Net Income

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EC Net Income CAGR:1Y: 128.18%2Y: 28.84%5Y: 8.52%10Y: 37.68%

EC - EBITDA

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EC EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 52.71%2Y: 26.03%5Y: 11.05%10Y: 12.68%

EC - Free Cash Flow

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EC Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: -28.51%2Y: -46.69%5Y: 44.81%10Y: -2.69%

EC - Free Cash Flow / Share

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EC Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: -43.76%2Y: -46.69%5Y: 44.81%10Y: -2.69%

EC - Operating Income

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EC Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 109.57%2Y: 11.31%5Y: 12.50%10Y: 16.62%

EC - Gross Profit

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EC Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 75.08%2Y: 11.20%5Y: 13.20%10Y: 15.77%

EC - Shares Outstanding

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EC Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: -0.01%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

EC - Share Buybacks

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EC Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

EC - Stock-Based Comp

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EC Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

EC - Expenses

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EC Expenses CAGR:1Y: -18.43%2Y: -37.79%5Y: -8.94%10Y: 4.31%

EC - Revenue vs Net Income

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EC - EPS vs FCF / Share

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EC - EPS vs PE Ratio

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EC - FCF vs FCF / Share

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EC - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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EC - Cash & Debt

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EC - Revenue by Segment

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EC Revenue CAGR:1Y: 25.21%2Y: 6.71%5Y: 13.82%10Y: 11.79%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

EC - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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EC Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 25.21%2Y: 6.71%5Y: 13.82%10Y: 11.79%

EC - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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EC Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 210.45%2Y: 29.06%5Y: 8.59%10Y: 37.72%

EC - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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EC Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 128.18%2Y: 28.84%5Y: 8.52%10Y: 37.68%

EC - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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EC Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 52.71%2Y: 26.03%5Y: 11.05%10Y: 12.68%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

EC - Net Profit Margin

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EC Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 147.38%2Y: 20.75%5Y: -4.65%10Y: 23.16%

EC - Gross Profit Margin

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EC Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 39.82%2Y: 4.22%5Y: -0.54%10Y: 3.55%

EC - Price to Earnings

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EC Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: -56.93%2Y: -20.49%5Y: -10.20%10Y: -22.48%

EC - Price To Sales Ratio

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EC Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: 6.78%2Y: -3.84%5Y: -14.33%10Y: -4.51%

EC - Return on Capital Employed

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EC Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: 124.86%2Y: 13.13%5Y: 0.09%10Y: 7.54%

EC - Return on Invested Capital

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EC Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: 118.60%2Y: 19.27%5Y: -6.41%10Y: 15.77%

EC Dividends Info:

Annual Dividend: $0.64946

Forward Yield: 3.93%

Ex-Dividend Date: 2026-04-29

Lifetime Dividends / Share: $28.46

EC Dividend History: Dates, Payments & Yield list

Below is a schedule of all EC dividend payments, ex-dates, share price on the day of the payment as well as the annualized yield & forward yield

Ex-Date	Payment Date	Amount	Yield	Forward Yield	Price on Ex-Date
04/29/2026	05/07/2026	$0.649	4.71%	5%	$13.00
06/26/2025	07/07/2025	$0.520	5.63%	5.86%	$8.87
04/28/2025	05/06/2025	$0.506	5.97%	6.42%	$7.88
04/03/2025	04/11/2025	$0.486	5.09%	5.52%	$8.80
06/25/2024	07/03/2024	$0.750	6.71%	6.65%	$11.27
06/24/2024	07/03/2024	$0.800	6.31%	7.1%	$11.27
04/04/2024	04/10/2024	$0.821	6.77%	6.94%	$11.84
12/19/2023	12/29/2023	$1.005	8.38%	8.43%	$11.92
09/26/2023	10/12/2023	$0.969	8.52%	8.14%	$11.90
04/25/2023	05/04/2023	$0.837	8.52%	9.66%	$8.66
06/28/2022	07/08/2022	$0.861	7.5%	8.29%	$10.38
04/19/2022	04/28/2022	$1.491	8.35%	8.94%	$16.68
04/20/2021	04/30/2021	$0.093	0.75%	0.79%	$11.83
04/21/2020	05/01/2020	$0.894	9.93%	9.5%	$9.41
12/26/2019	01/02/2020	$0.535	2.64%	2.63%	$20.31
04/23/2019	05/03/2019	$1.444	7.44%	7.98%	$18.10
04/17/2018	04/27/2018	$0.637	3.02%	2.91%	$21.87
04/25/2017	05/08/2017	$0.161	1.7%	1.72%	$9.32
06/17/2015	06/30/2015	$1.034	7.92%	7.8%	$13.26
04/22/2014	05/06/2014	$2.646	7.16%	7.28%	$36.36
04/09/2013	04/26/2013	$3.206	12.62%	13.6%	$47.14
04/19/2012	05/03/2012	$3.410	11.27%	10.26%	$66.44
10/07/2011	11/02/2011	$0.538	2.67%	2.55%	$42.23
07/08/2011	08/02/2011	$0.540	2.55%	2.58%	$41.86
04/07/2011	05/03/2011	$0.524	2.52%	2.45%	$42.77
11/30/2010	12/23/2010	$0.331	1.65%	1.58%	$41.98
11/30/2009	12/24/2009	$0.704	2.84%	2.91%	$24.20
08/10/2010	11/30/-0001	$0.305	1.66%	1.66%	$36.83
04/12/2010	11/30/-0001	$0.329	1.18%	1.18%	$27.96
08/12/2009	11/30/-0001	$0.635	2.36%	2.36%	$26.95
04/13/2009	11/30/-0001	$0.297	1.66%	1.66%	$17.90
11/28/2008	11/30/-0001	$0.243	1.38%	1.38%	$17.57
10/10/2008	11/30/-0001	$0.262	1.46%	1.46%	$18.00

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for EC

Based on past 10-year performance, here are EC growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +6.68%
Dividend CAGR of -2.23%

Using EC CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	EC (DRIP)	EC - No DRIP
Current Price	$16.51	$16.51
Start Shares	605.69	605.69
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	793.60	605.69
Dividends Payment	$0.52	$0.52
Annual Dividends	$411	$314
Yield on cost	4.11%	3.14%
Share Price	$31.51	$31.51
Total Dividends	$4,091	$3,562
Final Value	$25,008	$22,648

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - EC

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on EC's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) had its IPO on 2008-09-18, and is traded on NYSE stock exchange.

Ecopetrol SA engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. It operates through the following segments: Exploration and Production, Transportation and Logistics, and Refining and Petrochemicals. The Exploration and Production segment deals with oil and gas exploration and production activities. The Transportation and Logistics segment comprises of pipelines and other transportation activities. The Refining and Petrochemicals segment involves in refining activities and its products include motor fuels, fuel oils, and petrochemicals. The company was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Bogota, Colombia.

EC website: https://www.ecopetrol.com.co

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DCF Model — EC

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $16.51

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Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →