Forestar Group Inc. (FOR) Stock: Dividends & Earnings

Company Overview:

Market Cap: $1.14B

Trailing PE: 8x

FWD PE *: 9.8x

Payout Ratio (TTM): —

52-Week Range: $22.04 - $32.06

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year FOR Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 78.4% (5.96% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 78.4% (5.96% CAGR)

Share Price: 78.4% (5.96% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): —

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $17,840

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $7,840

FOR Total Return

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

FOR Price Chart

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

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FOR - Chart 1

FOR - Chart 2

FOR - Chart 3

FOR Financials: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

Revenue

FOR Revenue CAGR:1Y: -13.38%2Y: 2.63%5Y: 6.76%10Y: 28.53%

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

FOR EPS CAGR:1Y: -32.35%2Y: -15.22%5Y: 5.26%10Y: 17.46%

Net Income

FOR Net Income CAGR:1Y: -31.88%2Y: -14.82%5Y: 6.11%10Y: 19.87%

EBITDA

FOR EBITDA CAGR:1Y: -24.06%2Y: -11.61%5Y: 6.71%10Y: 17.26%

Free Cash Flow

FOR Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Free Cash Flow / Share

FOR Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Operating Income

FOR Operating Income CAGR:1Y: -39.53%2Y: -19.52%5Y: 2.86%10Y: 26.32%

Gross Profit

FOR Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: -31.08%2Y: -11.59%5Y: 6.32%10Y: 19.47%

Shares Outstanding

FOR Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: 0.39%2Y: 0.29%5Y: 0.64%10Y: 1.96%

Share Buybacks

FOR Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Stock-Based Comp

FOR Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Expenses

FOR Expenses CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Revenue vs Net Income

EPS vs FCF / Share

EPS vs PE Ratio

FCF vs FCF / Share

FCF vs Stock Based Comp

Cash & Debt

Revenue by Segment

FOR Revenue CAGR:1Y: -13.38%2Y: 2.63%5Y: 6.76%10Y: 28.53%

Revenue by Region

FOR Revenue CAGR:1Y: -13.38%2Y: 2.63%5Y: 6.76%10Y: 28.53%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

FOR Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: -13.38%2Y: 2.63%5Y: 6.76%10Y: 28.53%

EPS: Actual + Estimates

FOR Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: -32.35%2Y: -15.22%5Y: 5.26%10Y: 17.46%

NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

FOR Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: -31.88%2Y: -14.82%5Y: 6.11%10Y: 19.87%

EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

FOR Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: -24.06%2Y: -11.61%5Y: 6.71%10Y: 17.26%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

Net Profit Margin

FOR Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -21.49%2Y: -17.02%5Y: -0.62%10Y: -6.74%

Gross Profit Margin

FOR Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -20.44%2Y: -13.86%5Y: -0.42%10Y: -7.05%

Price to Earnings

FOR Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: 42.76%2Y: 5.06%5Y: 1.11%10Y: -6.02%

Price To Sales Ratio

FOR Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: 12.24%2Y: -12.75%5Y: 0.53%10Y: -12.34%

Return on Capital Employed

FOR Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: -42.06%2Y: -25.89%5Y: -4.97%10Y: 9.12%

Return on Invested Capital

FOR Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: -43.08%2Y: -25.71%5Y: -6.64%10Y: -2.48%

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for FOR

Based on past 10-year performance, here are FOR growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +5.96%
Dividend CAGR of +0%

Using FOR CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	FOR (DRIP)	FOR - No DRIP
Current Price	$22.30	$22.30
Start Shares	448.43	448.43
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	448.43	448.43
Dividends Payment	$0.00	$0.00
Annual Dividends	$0	$0
Yield on cost	0.00%	0.00%
Share Price	$22.30	$22.30
Total Dividends	$0	$0
Final Value	$10,000	$10,000

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - FOR

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on FOR's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

Company Info

Forestar Group Inc. (FOR) had its IPO on 2007-12-13, and is traded on NYSE stock exchange.

Forestar Group Inc. is an American company primarily engaged in developing residential lots. Its business model entails acquiring land, then preparing the necessary infrastructure for new single-family housing communities. These fully developed lots are subsequently sold to various home construction companies. Headquartered in Arlington, Texas, Forestar operates as a subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc.

FOR website: https://www.forestar.com

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DCF Model — FOR

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

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vs current price $22.30

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Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

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grows for the next years

Then mature

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every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

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÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →

Forestar Group Inc. FOR | NYSE

Company Overview:

10 Year FOR Performance Metrics:

FOR Financials: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for FOR

Company Info

DCF Model — FOR