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PACCAR Inc PCAR | NASDAQ

$111.26 $1.45 | 1.32%

SIGNAL:

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|2026-08-28 |F&G 15 |RSI 21.6

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $57.80B

Trailing PE: 23.4x

FWD PE *: 16.8x

Payout Ratio (TTM): 57.5%

52-Week Range: $92.25 - $139.24

* Forward PE is based on street estimates.

10 Year PCAR Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): 304.3% (14.99% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): 246.0% (13.22% CAGR)

Share Price: 183.9% (11.00% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): 5.09%

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $40,426

Total Return $ (with DRIP): $30,426

Dividend Increase: 118.8% (8.37% CAGR)

Dividend Yield (FWD): 1.26% ($1.40)

PCAR 10-yr Total Return ($10K invested)

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

PCAR Share Price

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

PCAR Price CAGR:1Y: 13.87%2Y: 6.52%5Y: 16.00%10Y: 11.00%

PCAR Dividend Charts

PCAR - Dividends

PCAR Dividend CAGR:1Y: -75.00%2Y: 2.99%5Y: 7.25%10Y: 6.49%

PCAR - Dividend Payout Ratio

PCAR Dividend Payout Ratio CAGR:1Y: 2.36%2Y: 32.25%5Y: 0.56%10Y: 3.44%

PCAR - Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio

PCAR Dividend to FCF Ratio CAGR:1Y: 52.98%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 9.57%

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PCAR Fundamentals: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

PCAR - Revenue

PCAR Revenue CAGR:1Y: 0.48%2Y: -7.25%5Y: 5.25%10Y: 5.51%

PCAR - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

PCAR EPS CAGR:1Y: 4.38%2Y: -18.06%5Y: 8.75%10Y: 4.62%

PCAR - Net Income

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PCAR Net Income CAGR:1Y: 3.90%2Y: -18.15%5Y: 8.70%10Y: 4.56%

PCAR - EBITDA

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PCAR EBITDA CAGR:1Y: -11.50%2Y: -18.27%5Y: 3.71%10Y: 4.18%

PCAR - Free Cash Flow

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PCAR Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: -30.48%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: -1.29%

PCAR - Free Cash Flow / Share

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PCAR Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: -30.63%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: -1.30%

PCAR - Operating Income

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PCAR Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 4.85%2Y: -17.04%5Y: 7.59%10Y: 7.75%

PCAR - Gross Profit

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PCAR Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 3.75%2Y: -8.74%5Y: 8.94%10Y: 6.07%

PCAR - Shares Outstanding

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PCAR Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: 0.17%2Y: 0.09%5Y: 0.18%10Y: 0.00%

PCAR - Share Buybacks

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PCAR Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PCAR - Stock-Based Comp

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PCAR Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PCAR - Expenses

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PCAR Expenses CAGR:1Y: 0.75%2Y: -12.59%5Y: -2.10%10Y: -2.44%

PCAR - Revenue vs Net Income

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PCAR - EPS vs FCF / Share

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PCAR - EPS vs PE Ratio

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PCAR - FCF vs FCF / Share

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PCAR - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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PCAR - Cash & Debt

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PCAR - Revenue by Segment

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PCAR Revenue CAGR:1Y: 0.48%2Y: -7.25%5Y: 5.25%10Y: 5.51%

Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

PCAR - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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PCAR Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 0.48%2Y: -7.25%5Y: 5.25%10Y: 5.51%

PCAR - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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PCAR Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 4.38%2Y: -18.06%5Y: 8.75%10Y: 4.62%

PCAR - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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PCAR Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 3.90%2Y: -18.15%5Y: 8.70%10Y: 4.56%

PCAR - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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PCAR Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: -11.50%2Y: -18.27%5Y: 3.71%10Y: 4.18%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

PCAR - Net Profit Margin

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PCAR Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 3.32%2Y: -11.79%5Y: 3.27%10Y: -0.91%

PCAR - Gross Profit Margin

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PCAR Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: -5.41%2Y: -5.83%5Y: 1.70%10Y: -0.35%

PCAR - Price to Earnings

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PCAR Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: 21.94%2Y: 32.77%5Y: 6.04%10Y: 8.31%

PCAR - Price To Sales Ratio

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PCAR Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: 26.02%2Y: 17.28%5Y: 9.57%10Y: 7.36%

PCAR - Return on Capital Employed

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PCAR Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: 3.70%2Y: -14.95%5Y: 0.14%10Y: 0.46%

PCAR - Return on Invested Capital

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PCAR Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: 3.29%2Y: -14.85%5Y: -3.91%10Y: -1.41%

PCAR Dividends Info:

Annual Dividend: $1.4

Forward Yield: 1.26%

Ex-Dividend Date: 2026-11-10

Lifetime Dividends / Share: $39.24

PCAR Dividend History: Dates, Payments & Yield list

Below is a schedule of all PCAR dividend payments, ex-dates, share price on the day of the payment as well as the annualized yield & forward yield

Ex-Date	Payment Date	Amount	Yield	Forward Yield	Price on Ex-Date
11/10/2026	12/02/2026	$0.350	1.25%	0%	$0.00
08/12/2026	08/14/2026	$0.350	1.07%	1.07%	$130.79
05/13/2026	05/15/2026	$0.350	1.25%	1.27%	$110.32
02/11/2026	02/13/2026	$0.330	1.02%	1.04%	$127.00
12/19/2025	12/22/2025	$1.400	5.02%	4.96%	$112.81
11/12/2025	11/14/2025	$0.330	1.34%	1.38%	$95.59
08/14/2025	08/18/2025	$0.330	1.32%	1.34%	$98.38
05/14/2025	05/16/2025	$0.330	1.39%	1.36%	$96.71
02/12/2025	02/14/2025	$0.330	1.28%	1.25%	$105.96
12/20/2024	12/23/2024	$3.000	11.39%	11.46%	$104.70
11/13/2024	11/15/2024	$0.300	1.03%	1.07%	$112.26
08/15/2024	08/19/2024	$0.300	1.26%	1.25%	$95.97
05/14/2024	05/16/2024	$0.300	1.11%	1.13%	$105.93
02/14/2024	02/16/2024	$0.270	1.01%	1%	$107.77
12/14/2023	12/18/2023	$3.200	13.36%	13.37%	$95.75
11/14/2023	11/16/2023	$0.270	1.19%	1.19%	$90.91
08/16/2023	08/18/2023	$0.270	1.28%	1.28%	$84.66
05/16/2023	06/07/2023	$0.250	1.42%	1.31%	$76.19
02/13/2023	03/08/2023	$0.250	1.37%	1.32%	$75.96
12/15/2022	01/05/2023	$1.867	11.44%	11.45%	$65.19
11/14/2022	12/06/2022	$0.247	1.45%	1.43%	$69.11
08/16/2022	09/07/2022	$0.227	1.43%	1.54%	$59.05
05/10/2022	06/01/2022	$0.227	1.62%	1.54%	$59.03
02/07/2022	03/01/2022	$0.227	1.44%	1.52%	$59.53
12/16/2021	01/05/2022	$0.667	4.66%	4.3%	$62.05
11/15/2021	12/07/2021	$0.227	1.52%	1.55%	$58.41
08/17/2021	09/08/2021	$0.227	1.7%	1.65%	$54.87
05/11/2021	06/02/2021	$0.227	1.44%	1.47%	$61.53
02/08/2021	03/02/2021	$0.213	1.32%	1.36%	$62.79
12/17/2020	01/06/2021	$0.467	3.26%	3.15%	$59.21
11/09/2020	12/01/2020	$0.213	1.41%	1.47%	$58.19
08/10/2020	09/01/2020	$0.213	1.42%	1.47%	$58.03
05/11/2020	05/15/2020	$0.213	1.86%	1.92%	$44.55
02/10/2020	03/03/2020	$0.213	1.7%	1.9%	$45.03
12/19/2019	01/08/2020	$1.533	11.54%	11.65%	$52.64
11/08/2019	12/03/2019	$0.213	1.6%	1.6%	$53.39
08/13/2019	09/04/2019	$0.213	1.93%	1.96%	$43.64
05/13/2019	06/04/2019	$0.213	1.89%	1.87%	$45.75
02/11/2019	03/05/2019	$0.213	1.96%	1.89%	$45.19
12/13/2018	01/04/2019	$1.333	13.96%	13.55%	$39.35
11/09/2018	12/04/2018	$0.187	1.92%	1.89%	$39.55
08/13/2018	09/05/2018	$0.187	1.75%	1.6%	$46.61
05/14/2018	06/05/2018	$0.187	1.77%	1.74%	$42.94
02/12/2018	03/06/2018	$0.167	1.47%	1.43%	$46.61
12/13/2017	01/04/2018	$0.800	6.85%	6.41%	$49.90
11/13/2017	12/05/2017	$0.167	1.44%	1.43%	$46.78
08/14/2017	09/06/2017	$0.167	1.53%	1.53%	$43.49
05/17/2017	06/06/2017	$0.167	1.58%	1.56%	$42.75
02/10/2017	03/07/2017	$0.160	1.4%	1.42%	$45.05
12/14/2016	01/06/2017	$0.400	3.65%	3.64%	$43.92
11/16/2016	12/02/2016	$0.160	1.59%	1.52%	$42.07
08/10/2016	09/02/2016	$0.160	1.66%	1.62%	$39.47
05/17/2016	06/06/2016	$0.160	1.7%	1.72%	$37.17
02/10/2016	03/03/2016	$0.160	1.97%	1.78%	$36.04
12/16/2015	01/05/2016	$0.933	11.99%	11.87%	$31.45
11/10/2015	12/04/2015	$0.160	1.87%	1.93%	$33.19
08/12/2015	09/04/2015	$0.160	1.53%	1.69%	$37.89
05/15/2015	06/05/2015	$0.147	1.32%	1.39%	$42.35
02/11/2015	03/05/2015	$0.147	1.4%	1.41%	$41.63
12/17/2014	01/06/2015	$0.667	5.88%	6.06%	$43.97
11/12/2014	12/05/2014	$0.147	1.32%	1.25%	$46.83
08/13/2014	09/05/2014	$0.147	1.42%	1.43%	$41.07
05/15/2014	06/05/2014	$0.147	1.44%	1.38%	$42.63
02/12/2014	03/05/2014	$0.133	1.35%	1.22%	$43.54
12/18/2013	01/07/2014	$0.600	6.24%	6.09%	$39.41
11/13/2013	12/05/2013	$0.133	1.41%	1.44%	$37.07
08/14/2013	09/05/2013	$0.133	1.43%	1.47%	$36.40
05/15/2013	06/05/2013	$0.133	1.5%	1.52%	$35.19
02/13/2013	03/05/2013	$0.133	1.67%	1.65%	$32.24
12/12/2012	12/28/2012	$0.533	7.17%	7.2%	$29.62
11/14/2012	12/04/2012	$0.133	1.92%	1.84%	$28.95
08/15/2012	09/05/2012	$0.133	1.95%	2.04%	$26.15
05/16/2012	06/05/2012	$0.133	2.06%	2.18%	$24.41
02/15/2012	03/05/2012	$0.120	1.62%	1.6%	$30.01
12/15/2011	01/05/2012	$0.467	7.7%	6.94%	$26.91
11/16/2011	12/05/2011	$0.120	1.79%	1.78%	$27.03
08/16/2011	09/06/2011	$0.120	1.91%	2.03%	$23.65
05/17/2011	06/06/2011	$0.080	0.96%	1.01%	$31.81
02/15/2011	03/07/2011	$0.080	0.91%	0.99%	$32.29
12/15/2010	12/29/2010	$0.200	2.1%	2.09%	$38.33
11/17/2010	12/06/2010	$0.080	0.93%	0.86%	$37.15
08/17/2010	09/07/2010	$0.060	0.82%	0.81%	$29.49
05/17/2010	06/07/2010	$0.060	0.83%	0.93%	$25.91
02/17/2010	03/05/2010	$0.060	1%	0.92%	$26.14
11/17/2009	12/07/2009	$0.060	0.91%	1%	$23.98
08/14/2009	09/08/2009	$0.060	1.02%	0.97%	$24.63
05/15/2009	06/05/2009	$0.120	2.49%	2.11%	$22.80
02/17/2009	03/03/2009	$0.120	2.62%	3.1%	$15.49
12/17/2008	01/05/2009	$0.067	1.4%	1.3%	$20.45
11/14/2008	12/05/2008	$0.120	2.56%	2.59%	$18.53
08/14/2008	09/05/2008	$0.120	1.68%	1.72%	$27.92
05/15/2008	06/05/2008	$0.120	1.43%	1.37%	$35.06
02/14/2008	03/05/2008	$0.120	1.67%	1.63%	$29.39
12/14/2007	01/07/2008	$0.667	7.53%	7.83%	$34.07
11/15/2007	12/05/2007	$0.120	1.51%	1.32%	$36.37
08/15/2007	09/05/2007	$0.111	1.27%	1.17%	$37.87
05/16/2007	06/05/2007	$0.111	1.16%	1.12%	$39.56
02/14/2007	03/05/2007	$0.089	1.11%	1.18%	$30.12
12/14/2006	01/05/2007	$0.889	12.01%	12.36%	$28.76
11/15/2006	12/05/2006	$0.089	1.24%	1.18%	$30.11
08/16/2006	09/05/2006	$0.089	1.38%	1.42%	$25.06
05/16/2006	06/05/2006	$0.089	1.55%	1.57%	$22.68
02/15/2006	03/06/2006	$0.074	1.44%	1.45%	$20.49
12/15/2005	01/05/2006	$0.593	11.37%	11.14%	$21.28
11/15/2005	12/05/2005	$0.074	1.4%	1.39%	$21.39
08/16/2005	09/06/2005	$0.062	1.21%	1.18%	$21.12
05/17/2005	06/06/2005	$0.062	1.27%	1.18%	$21.04
02/16/2005	03/04/2005	$0.059	1.11%	1.05%	$22.60
12/16/2004	01/05/2005	$0.593	10.22%	10.84%	$21.86
11/16/2004	12/06/2004	$0.059	1.04%	1.03%	$23.01
08/16/2004	09/07/2004	$0.059	1.35%	1.25%	$18.90
05/17/2004	06/04/2004	$0.059	1.51%	1.43%	$16.61
02/13/2004	03/05/2004	$0.044	1.09%	1.11%	$15.97
12/17/2003	01/05/2004	$0.237	5.87%	5.55%	$17.09
11/14/2003	12/05/2003	$0.043	1.13%	1.11%	$15.65
08/14/2003	09/05/2003	$0.043	1.09%	1.05%	$16.59
05/15/2003	06/05/2003	$0.043	1.41%	1.28%	$13.63
02/13/2003	03/05/2003	$0.040	1.71%	1.7%	$9.27
12/16/2002	01/06/2003	$0.138	5.91%	5.82%	$9.50
11/18/2002	12/05/2002	$0.040	1.77%	1.69%	$9.34
08/19/2002	09/05/2002	$0.040	2.07%	2.41%	$6.55
05/30/2002	06/14/2002	$0.040	1.81%	2.01%	$7.86
02/14/2002	03/05/2002	$0.040	1.78%	1.62%	$9.75
12/17/2001	01/07/2002	$0.033	1.57%	1.52%	$8.67
11/16/2001	12/05/2001	$0.040	2%	1.84%	$8.57
08/17/2001	09/05/2001	$0.040	2.16%	2.12%	$7.45
05/17/2001	06/05/2001	$0.040	2.42%	2.37%	$6.66
02/14/2001	03/05/2001	$0.040	2.4%	2.45%	$6.46
12/19/2000	01/05/2001	$0.132	9.36%	7.47%	$7.05
11/16/2000	12/05/2000	$0.040	2.81%	2.51%	$6.30
08/16/2000	09/05/2000	$0.040	2.84%	2.77%	$5.71
05/16/2000	06/05/2000	$0.040	2.7%	2.8%	$5.65
02/16/2000	03/03/2000	$0.040	2.68%	2.5%	$6.32
12/17/1999	01/05/2000	$0.211	14.63%	14.81%	$5.69
11/16/1999	12/03/1999	$0.026	1.84%	1.89%	$5.57
08/18/1999	09/03/1999	$0.026	1.44%	1.37%	$7.68
05/18/1999	06/04/1999	$0.026	1.43%	1.38%	$7.61
02/17/1999	03/05/1999	$0.026	1.96%	1.81%	$5.81
12/17/1998	12/21/1998	$0.211	15.46%	15.84%	$5.32
11/17/1998	12/04/1998	$0.020	1.26%	1.35%	$5.86
08/19/1998	09/04/1998	$0.020	1.42%	1.47%	$5.37
05/19/1998	06/05/1998	$0.020	1.05%	1.05%	$7.51
02/17/1998	03/05/1998	$0.020	1%	0.94%	$8.40
12/18/1997	01/05/1998	$0.039	2.15%	2.2%	$7.09
11/18/1997	12/05/1997	$0.020	1.24%	1.08%	$7.33
08/19/1997	09/05/1997	$0.020	1.26%	1.18%	$6.67
05/23/1997	06/09/1997	$0.020	1.39%	1.29%	$6.12
02/18/1997	03/05/1997	$0.016	1.45%	1.4%	$4.72
12/18/1996	01/06/1997	$0.099	8.72%	8.74%	$4.52
11/15/1996	12/05/1996	$0.016	1.7%	1.44%	$4.58
08/16/1996	09/05/1996	$0.016	2.15%	2.2%	$2.99
05/16/1996	06/05/1996	$0.016	2.03%	2.08%	$3.17
02/15/1996	03/05/1996	$0.016	1.9%	2.08%	$3.16
12/18/1995	12/20/1995	$0.019	2.57%	2.59%	$3.01
11/16/1995	12/05/1995	$0.016	2.39%	2.21%	$2.98
08/17/1995	09/05/1995	$0.016	2.08%	1.98%	$3.32
05/12/1995	06/05/1995	$0.016	2.16%	2.04%	$3.23
02/13/1995	03/03/1995	$0.016	2.37%	2.26%	$2.91
12/19/1994	01/05/1995	$0.016	2.26%	2.19%	$3.01
11/14/1994	12/05/1994	$0.016	2.31%	2.34%	$2.81
08/17/1994	09/09/1994	$0.016	2.06%	2.03%	$3.24
05/13/1994	06/03/1994	$0.031	3.58%	3.93%	$3.14
02/16/1994	03/07/1994	$0.031	3.06%	3.2%	$3.84
12/20/1993	01/07/1994	$0.035	3.34%	3.97%	$3.56
01/04/1994	01/06/1994	$0.031	3.54%	3.49%	$3.52
11/15/1993	12/03/1993	$0.016	1.44%	1.48%	$4.46
08/13/1993	09/03/1993	$0.016	1.61%	1.56%	$4.21
05/14/1993	06/04/1993	$0.016	1.73%	1.76%	$3.74
12/17/1992	01/07/1993	$0.016	1.74%	1.7%	$3.87
11/13/1992	12/07/1992	$0.016	1.74%	1.71%	$3.84
08/14/1992	09/04/1992	$0.016	1.88%	1.89%	$3.49
05/15/1992	06/05/1992	$0.016	1.75%	1.64%	$4.02
02/12/1992	03/05/1992	$0.001	0.14%	0.14%	$3.69
12/13/1991	01/07/1992	$0.001	0.07%	0.07%	$3.19
11/13/1991	12/05/1991	$0.016	2.03%	2.13%	$3.09
08/15/1991	09/05/1991	$0.016	2.22%	2.16%	$3.05
05/15/1991	06/05/1991	$0.016	2.23%	2.02%	$3.26
02/12/1991	03/05/1991	$0.001	0.18%	0.19%	$2.67
11/13/1990	12/05/1990	$0.041	8.53%	7.52%	$2.19
08/15/1990	09/05/1990	$0.041	6.89%	7.88%	$2.09
05/15/1990	06/05/1990	$0.041	6.1%	5.92%	$2.78
02/12/1990	03/05/1990	$0.001	0.2%	0.18%	$2.85
12/22/1989	01/08/1990	$0.041	6.14%	6.03%	$2.73
11/13/1989	12/05/1989	$0.041	6.41%	5.66%	$2.91
08/15/1989	09/05/1989	$0.041	5.38%	4.97%	$3.31
05/16/1989	06/05/1989	$0.041	5.02%	5.1%	$3.23
12/16/1988	01/05/1989	$0.041	6.21%	6.1%	$2.70
11/10/1988	12/05/1988	$0.029	4.29%	4.11%	$2.80
05/16/1988	06/06/1988	$0.029	5.01%	4.82%	$2.39
02/11/1988	03/04/1988	$0.013	2.45%	2.27%	$2.32
11/12/1987	12/04/1987	$0.013	2.73%	2.96%	$1.78

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for PCAR

Based on past 10-year performance, here are PCAR growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of +11%
Dividend CAGR of +8.14%

Using PCAR CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	PCAR (DRIP)	PCAR - No DRIP
Current Price	$111.26	$111.26
Start Shares	89.88	89.88
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	100.54	89.88
Dividends Payment	$0.77	$0.77
Annual Dividends	$308	$275
Yield on cost	3.08%	2.75%
Share Price	$315.87	$315.87
Total Dividends	$1,958	$1,835
Final Value	$31,757	$30,225

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - PCAR

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on PCAR's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 10 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

PACCAR Inc (PCAR) had its IPO on 1980-03-17, and is traded on NASDAQ stock exchange.

PACCAR Inc is a global leader specializing in the design, production, and distribution of commercial trucks, covering light, medium, and heavy-duty classes. Its market reach extends across the United States, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australia, and other international territories. The company's operations are divided into three principal segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck division focuses on engineering, manufacturing, and supplying vehicles tailored for both long-distance highway travel and challenging off-highway applications, primarily for hauling commercial and consumer goods. These vehicles are sold worldwide through an expansive network of independent dealerships, prominently featuring the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands. The Parts segment is dedicated to supplying aftermarket components for its trucks and associated commercial vehicles. Through its Financial Services arm, which encompasses full-service leasing under the PacLease trademark, PACCAR offers a wide array of financing and leasing products to both its customers and its dealer network. This segment also delivers equipment financing and administrative assistance to its franchisees. It provides retail loans and leasing options to a diverse clientele, including small, medium, and large commercial trucking firms, independent owner-operators, and various other businesses. Additionally, it facilitates truck inventory financing for independent dealers and directly extends loans and leases to customers for purchasing trucks and related equipment. Beyond its core truck business, PACCAR also fabricates and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic labels. Established in 1905, PACCAR Inc's corporate headquarters are situated in Bellevue, Washington.

PCAR website: https://www.paccar.com

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DCF Model — PCAR

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $111.26

—

Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →

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