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PONY | NASDAQ

$6.26 -$0.28 | -4.28%

SIGNAL:

|2026-08-18 |F&G 28 |RSI 34.2

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Company Overview:

Market Cap: $2.67B

Trailing PE: N/A

FWD PE: —

Payout Ratio (TTM): —

52-Week Range: $6.11 - $24.92

1.8 Year PONY Performance Metrics:

Total Return (with DRIP): -47.8% (-30.34% CAGR)

Total Return (no DRIP): -47.8% (-30.34% CAGR)

Share Price: -47.8% (-30.34% CAGR)

Yield on Cost (with DRIP): —

Total Invested: $10,000

Total Value (with DRIP): $5,217

Total Return $ (with DRIP): -$4,783

PONY Total Return

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y

PONY Price Chart

1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y All

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PONY Fundamentals: Earnings, Revenue, Cash Flow, Ebitda, Cash/Debt, Shares Float, etc:

PONY - Revenue

PONY Revenue CAGR:1Y: 68.82%2Y: 21.13%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Earnings Per Share (EPS)

PONY EPS CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Net Income

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PONY Net Income CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - EBITDA

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PONY EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Free Cash Flow

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PONY Free Cash Flow CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Free Cash Flow / Share

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PONY Free Cash Flow / Share CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Operating Income

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PONY Operating Income CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Gross Profit

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PONY Gross Profit CAGR:1Y: 83.37%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Shares Outstanding

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PONY Shares Outstanding CAGR:1Y: 18.19%2Y: 128.40%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Share Buybacks

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PONY Share Buybacks CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Stock-Based Comp

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PONY Stock-Based Comp CAGR:1Y: 25.57%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Expenses

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PONY Expenses CAGR:1Y: 122.37%2Y: 311.06%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Revenue vs Net Income

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PONY - EPS vs FCF / Share

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PONY - EPS vs PE Ratio

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PONY - FCF vs FCF / Share

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PONY - FCF vs Stock Based Comp

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PONY - Cash & Debt

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Revenue, EPS, Net Income & Ebitda - Estimates VS Actual:

PONY - REVENUE: Actual + Estimates

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PONY Actual Revenue CAGR:1Y: 68.82%2Y: 21.13%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - EPS: Actual + Estimates

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PONY Actual EPS CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - NET INCOME: Actual + Estimates

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PONY Actual Net Income CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - EBITDA: Actual + Estimates

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PONY Actual EBITDA CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Ratios, Profit Margins & Return on Capital:

PONY - Net Profit Margin

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PONY Net Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Gross Profit Margin

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PONY Gross Profit Margin CAGR:1Y: 8.61%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Price to Earnings

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PONY Price to Earnings CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Price To Sales Ratio

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PONY Price To Sales Ratio CAGR:1Y: -63.14%2Y: 43.50%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Return on Capital Employed

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PONY Return on Capital Employed CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

PONY - Return on Invested Capital

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PONY Return on Invested Capital CAGR:1Y: 0.00%2Y: 0.00%5Y: 0.00%10Y: 0.00%

Projected Future Returns & Dividends for PONY

Based on past 1.8-year performance, here are PONY growth metrics:

Share price CAGR of -30.34%
Dividend CAGR of +0%

Using PONY CAGR metrics, we can estimate that your initial $10000 investment, over the next 10 years, should grow as follows:

	PONY (DRIP)	PONY - No DRIP
Current Price	$6.26	$6.26
Start Shares	1,597.44	1,597.44
Start Value	$10,000	$10,000

After 10 years:
Final Share Count	1,597.44	1,597.44
Dividends Payment	$0.00	$0.00
Annual Dividends	$0	$0
Yield on cost	0.00%	0.00%
Share Price	$0.72	$6.26
Total Dividends	$0	$0
Final Value	$1,143	$10,000

Estimated Future Value + Dividends - PONY

NOTE: Above numbers are our estimate based on PONY's Dividend and Price CAGR over past 1.8 years. These numbers should only be considered as "potential future returns"! DRIP assumes reinvesting dividends; No-DRIP assumes collecting dividends as cash.

We cannot guarantee that your actual returns will meet these estimates.

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Company Info

Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares (PONY) had its IPO on 2024-11-27, and is traded on NASDAQ stock exchange.

Pony AI Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, specializes in autonomous mobility solutions across the People's Republic of China and the United States. The company delivers automated trucking services, assisting logistics platforms with freight transportation. Furthermore, Pony AI provides robotaxi offerings, which encompass a full spectrum of autonomous vehicle (AV) engineering support, including the deployment and upkeep of AV software, vehicle system integration and engineering, and extensive road testing. It also operates commercial, fare-charging robotaxi services. Beyond these, the company develops intelligent solutions for personally-owned vehicles, comprising advanced driving software, its own proprietary vehicle domain controllers, and data analytics tools. Its services further extend to vehicle integration, software development, and licensing. To enhance road safety, Pony AI also offers vehicle-to-everything (V2X) products and related services. Established in 2016, Pony AI Inc. is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

PONY website: https://www.pony.ai

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DCF Model — PONY

Value from:

EPS (TTM)icompany profit per share over the last 12 months

EPS Growth %ihow fast profit per share grows each of the next 5 years — prefilled with what analysts expect

EPS growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slower pace once the fast 5 years are over — only drives years 6-10 of the price path below

Exit multiple (PE in 5 yrs)iwhat buyers pay per $1 of profit in 2031 — prefilled with today’s forward PE

Desired return %/yrithe yearly return you want from buying today — the S&P has done ~14%/yr, ask for more from a single stock

FCF growth %/yr (next 5 yrs)ihow fast free cash flow grows while the company is still expanding fast

Years of fast FCF growthihow many years the fast growth lasts before the business settles down

FCF growth after year 5 (forever)ithe slow, steady pace once the company is mature — usually 2-3%, near inflation. Must stay below your target return

Risk-free rate %iwhat a 10-yr US treasury pays with zero risk — the floor any risky stock must beat

Your target return %/yrithe yearly return you want for taking this risk — rule of thumb: risk-free rate + extra for risk

FCF base ($M, TTM)ilast 12 months of free cash flow, added up from reported quarters

Include dividends in returnidividends hand you part of the return in cash, so the share price needs to climb less

Pay up to today

—

vs current price $6.26

—

Cash flow & implied price by year

FCF is negative or missing for this company (common for banks) — the model discounts EPS instead.

EPS is negative or missing for this company — Simple mode uses free cash flow per share instead.

Free cash flow today

—

grows for the next years

Then mature

—

every future dollar counted back to today

Pile of today-dollars

—

÷ shares

Implied price path

Year	FCF	Implied price

Sensitivity — fair value: growth ↓ × target return →